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This is exciting, positive, and forward thinking, but it neglects several sectors of the world economy. Specifically, agricultural production. Farmers are notoriously slow to adopt new equipment. If it's because of cost or infrastructure, in my opinion, I doubt that ICE will be eliminated in 25 years. Until there is an economical way to replace or modify all of the equipment globally, I don't think it can happen.
The prediction is for % of new car sales, it's not for % of cars on the road, or for equipment sales.
It's a fun little infographic, they're very cheeky throughout.
I'm an equipment operator in CA, I think our state will exceed these goals. If you've ever dealt with the complexities of CARB, you'd know that equipment owners here would love something that wouldn't force them into rigorous testing that diesel is subject to now. As CA goes so goes the industrialized world eventually even if kicking and screaming. We've always been at the front edge - from catalytic converters onward.
This graph was just meant for personal vehicles and not to be too serious. He talks about the graph here:
He discusses the graph at the 10min mark.
Good news served with a smile! Too rare these days. But...
I think the curve is too smooth especially between now and about 2022-23 so in the spirit of "Jurassic Park" what happens when we toss in a bit of chaos and ignore the theory?
One bit of chaos might be a collapse in demand for new ICE vehicles induced by the spread of city based driving bans/fees. This bit of nastiness works by reducing the value of used vehicles and in effect 'locking in' those motorists who can't or won't take the loss at trade in time.
Crashing new car will obviously make EV sales growth look even better.
Yeah, I think the advent of EVs and SDCs together will tank the value of non autonomous ICEs. The major factor that I can see is that max usage of cars is in rush hour and only comes in at 10% of cars. So switching most people over to EV self driving taxis doesn't require as many sales or years of manufacturing as most predict. The wave is going to hit - and fast, and ICE vehicles values is going to drop like a stone.
We agree on the end of the ICE age but I don't think self-driving plays as big a role in the EV adoption rate as people like Tony Seba have given it. Surge pricing at rush hour and the emptying out of the public transit system will have a part to play in that.
My best guess is that new ICE car sales fall at an accelerating rate, car makers finally see the writing on the wall and get EV development moving. This should happen this year if the California car market evolves as expected: Cal is 12% of US by population, it is also 50% of the US EV market; Tesla's Model 3 will drive the passenger car segment in Cal to 10+% EV later (and later..) this year; Tesla doesn't sell through dealerships who won't be happy to see sales fall; lack of EVs is viewed as existential crisis by car companies but for now self-driving can be left to the after market.
Something tells me they don’t like hydrogen fuelled cars, especially with their ability to emit 0 local pollution and can “recharge” to do 400 miles in 2 minutes.
Hydrogen has a whole bunch of problems. Currently almost all commercially available hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. To make it viable massive amounts of infrastructure will have to be built. To make it environmentally friendly large scale electrolysis will have to be done that is powered by emissions free electricity. Electrolysis is also much less efficient then just charging a battery pack directly so you have much more energy being used per KM of driving. There was a reason why the oil and gas industry was pushing hard for hydrogen. They wanted to be the suppliers of it. BEVs cut out the middle man and they don't like that.
Hydrogen is also difficult to store. Being a very small molecule, it has a tendency to find its way out of whatever vessel you try to store it in.
There is a funny video of Elon Musk ripping apart hydrogen fuel cells a few years back.
Indeed. The max possible charge rate on EVs is always going to be a limiting factor. I've seen figures of 350kW bandied about, I don't know if that's fanciful or not, it's pretty damn massive amount of current, voltage, or both.
Even if possible, that means something like 17 mins to get that 400 miles (assuming some degree of battery improvement, so you don't have to lug around 3/4 tonnes of Lion batteries to do that)
Sometimes that amount of time will prove problematical.
I wish it were all fabulous, but chemical storage of energy (petrol/ hydrogen) is inert while you fill. Electricity is analogous to having to refill directly with fire in an ICE.
That's not going to effect most people though. Most people drive to work and back during the week and to the mall and back on the weekend. 400+ mile trips are the excepting for the best majority of people. It's the lack of overnight charging options for city and condo dwellers that's going to need to be fixed first.
I drive and EV and I can tell you that for day to day driving charge times are meaningless as long as the range of the car fits what you are doing and have home charging. And for the majority of people even current low range EVs will work fine day to day. You come home plug the car in and every morning you have a full charge. What the other poster says about people in apartments and condos are a much bigger problem. Tesla is trying to address that by building new urban superchargers for people in those situations.
Really it is long distance trips that are the only reason you need fast charging. Given your example above if that is the eventual speed of charging I see zero problems with that. Most people are driving that distance will stop to eat, use the washroom, etc. So if you need to charge for 20 minutes to be able to drive for another 6 hours that could be timed around those normal breaks.
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