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[–]8thling[S] 19 points20 points  (16 children)

Kimbrel's gonna get paid a lot more than he's worth and I hope the Braves aren't the ones to do that as much as I'd love to have him back. A trade for Hand would be awesome though, and that team buyout is nice security.

[–]amlaminackSmoltynewicz 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It’s worth a shot to see if Craig would offer a hometown discount but I agree with you about overpaying for a closer

[–]possumallawishes 2 points3 points  (12 children)

If you use Aroldis Chapman as a comp, getting a 5 year at 17.2M AAV in his age 29 season, with an opt out after three, I'd be fine with that. Shouldn't hamstring a team with plenty of young low cost talent and cheap starting rotation. I'd be even better at a higher AAV and less years; $18 or $19 per year, 4 years, opt out after 2 for Craig and a buyout for a couple Million in the fourth. It's fair, its top of the market, he can still get paid again in 2 years and he gets to come home and win a championship. Win/win/win. Absolutely worst case for the braves is he falls off by year two and we have to suffer a season before we can buy him out.

You act like you don't want our team to spend money!??!? I say spend and spend wisely, please!! There's only a few names that even compare when you talk about shutdown closers. We can be the smart team that overachieves with scrap heap, buy low talent, or we can have the BEST team possible. A guy like Kimbrel could really solidify the bullpen from the top down. Is he worth $18M? no not really, as you'd probably be lucky to get 2 WAR per year, so it's definitely an overpay. But tell me this, its a playoff game 7, bottom of the 9th up one run, who do you want to see trot out of the bullpen? Kimbrel or Hand?

[–]8thling[S] -1 points0 points  (11 children)

I want to spend money but not on a closer. If our management would use him as a fireman and give him 100 innings a season? Yeah that's probably a good deal. 60 innings of just save situations? Not a fan. I'd rather pay up for Harper.

[–]possumallawishes 5 points6 points  (10 children)

Kimbrel is currently worth twice as much in terms of WAR as Hooper. Aside from his monster 2015, he's eclipsed 3 WAR just 3 times and he's currently on pace to fall short again and he has only played 150+ games once in his career, despite being incredibly young. He'll take a 10 year contract easy and likely a bidding war that prohibits any of the team's leverage in regards to contract terms, meaning he'll have convenient language in terms of no-trade and opt outs. He's exactly the type of player that will be an albatross for a team ala Hanley Ramirez or A-Rod. He may never recreate what he did in 2015, but he'll get paid as if that's his norm. That's dumb money. His problem is inconsistency. Did you know, if you count this season, Nick Markakis has outplayed Bruce Harper in 3 of the last 5 seasons? We could resign Nicky singles cheap and get a top tier 3rd baseman at a discount, sign Kimbrel and STILL have stupid cash to blow and dozens of prospects available for any blockbuster trades.

Bottom 9th, two outs, one run game. Kimbrel vs Brent Herper.. I'll pick Kimbrel every.single.time.

He's Bruce "the douche" Hopper, not Mike Trout. Let's save our money for 2021 if we really want the best player on the planet.

[–]yesacabbagez 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Did you know, if you count this season, Nick Markakis has outplayed Bruce Harper in 3 of the last 5 seasons?

People like to complain about cherry picking stats, but holy shit is that not understanding how anyone should look at anything. This year is half over and Markakis has been doing better so far. The years Markakis has done better according to you are only from BBRef and that is because +/- likes Markakis defensively when no one else does. Offensively, Harper has been massively better than markakis since he entered the league. Markakis has been bette roffensively than Harper twice in Haprer's career. The first time was when Harper was fucking 19 and put up a 121 wrc+ to Markakis' 126. Harper has gone over 3 war 3 times, well its 4 on FG with a 5th at 3 wins. Markakis MIGHT get 3 if he can keep up this season.

If you really can't understand why people will hurl more money at Harper than Kimbrel, then you purposefully ignore that Harper isn't even into his prime and already shown he's at worst an average major league player. No matter how good Kimbrel is, unless you expect him to be Mariano Rivera, RP always eventually blow up. Do yo want to throw 100+m for a chance to have a guy who did something once?

[–]possumallawishes 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Cherry picked stats are certainly a fair argument, but my point was to show how wildly inconsistent Brack Hooker actually is. I understand why people would hurl money at Bruce, although I never suggested more money be hurled Kimbrel's way. What I'm arguing, is somewhat vague since we are arguing on an 'assumed' market value of two very different players. Butt Holder is definitely a better player than Kimbrel, all things equal, but my argument is that you can absorb an overpay to Kimbrel pretty easily even using a top market comp like Chapman, whereas Brett Horpel could end up signing a large value contract with very player friendly terms (using Stanton, Upton, Trout type comps), then parlay that into a 15 year albatross like ARod did, before being paid to walk away. Yes, he's young, but dude wants to get paid, wants tons of guaranteed money, and wants to be able to walk away if someone shines more coin his way. Corner bats are cheap, why overpay for a corner bat when you can find excellent value on shorter term contracts? Look at LoCain, JD, and Yelich, all were acquired by their respective teams in the offseason and are all outplaying Hooper and cost (presumably) pennies to the dollar in comparison.

I don't understand your last question, about throwing a 100+M for a chance to do something once... for one, because I had hoped Kimbrel would cost less than $100M and because I assumed Brent would cost at least 3 times $100M. If we are talking just $100M for Bright Helper, then I am DOWN!

[–]halfhereTalk Snit, Get Hit 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Agreed. Up until this past week, our second baseman was out hitting Harper.

[–]possumallawishes 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Our 5' 2" 2nd baseman is currently outslugging Blick Hamper and has just 2 fewer RBIs even though he's been used predominantly at leadoff.

[–]halfhereTalk Snit, Get Hit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So obviously we should pay him half a billion dollars to come be not as good as Nicky Two-bags

[–]8thling[S] 0 points1 point  (4 children)

Harper's 2017 was elite and this year he's due for some serious BABIP regression (which will mean better performance) and still has a 120 OPS+. I don't think he'll be worth the contract he'll get but I don't think Kimbrel will be either. He's also incredibly marketable which you have to consider from a fiscal perspective. Overall I don't think either will be worth it, and you've pretty well convinced me Bruce is a bad idea. I just still think Kimbrel is one too 🤷‍♂️. And we've got a much better chance of getting a new Kimbrel with all our pitching prospects than having Waters or Izzy Wilson turn into elite hitters. Anyways it's a damn good thing I'm not running the Braves.

Really if we get either imma be elated short term even if it means suffering down the road.

[–]possumallawishes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are right, he does have elite upside and his numbers, particularly batting average, is depressed this year by what appears to simply be some bad luck... all that said, I will take it as a win that I've rescued one mind from the dark side by convincing you Britt is a bad idea. We are probably sitting on a pair of elite hitters in left and at first, and have some great defenders up the middle. Corner bats are cheap now, I really don't see a reason to go big for a corner. True and consistent shut down closers seem much rarer, i would overpay there over anywhere else simply because the nature of closing out a game. Nothing stings worse than a blown save.

[–]halfhereTalk Snit, Get Hit 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Well spoken.

My question in this scenario is what what would we be paying Kimbrel vs Harper? The 400 million estimate prices Harper out of consideration, in my opinion.

I think I usually come off as saying Harper isn’t worth spending money on. I don’t mean that, I just think that’s a bit too much.

[–]possumallawishes 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Aroldis Chapman got 5 years / 86M Kenley got 5/80M I think those are the comps, and Kimbrel will be looking to probably do a little better. I'd try for 4/75 with a 15M option for the 5th year and a 5M buyout. That puts his guaranteed at 4/80, but tops out at 5/90M. Thats GOOD money for a closer, but not so much that the Braves couldn't move him or walk away without much harm.

There aren't many comps for Horper. He'd be dumb to ask for anything less than $30M AAV over 10+ years. Closest comp is Giancarlo's 13yr/$325M, which has multiple opt outs that will surely be used to leverage a longer extension if he outplays his yearly contract value. I think Harper could legitimately get 12 years/$400M and work in at least 2 opt-outs before his 30th birthday so he can test the market again before he's deemed "old".

[–]halfhereTalk Snit, Get Hit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really solid breakdown. Thanks!

[–]malowolf 0 points1 point  (1 child)

He's prolly looking at a 5 year, $80M contract, it might balloon up to $90 or go up to 6 years if there's a bidding war. That's totally worthwhile, since Braves have a lot of money to spend and not a lot of huge needs. I think Braves should make him our top priority this offseason.

[–]MuscoviteMutineerSWEET SWEET DONGS 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d pay that because he will help us win five World Series during that contract.