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6
Posted by
Bests Tigers
13 hours ago
Stickied post

LAST MAN STANDING 06 enters Round 23 - nobody's on Brissy, Souths, Saints or Tigers - tough games all.

Some of our users are down to bottom eight sides to choose from for the next two weeks - has their strategy failed them?


We have had 396 entrants this time in round 16

10 start our round 23 matches...

PENRITH are the favoured way with 40% on Griffin's Cleary's Barrett's Macguire's Bennett's Ciraldo's men.


TO THOSE THAT HAVEN'T PLAYED BEFORE:

Essentially you tip just one game each week - whichever one you want - and if you get it right, you go on to the next week. If you fuck it up, you are eliminated and that's game over for you. Whoever is still standing at the end, wins!

Sorry no more new entries


user tip
Tunza Cronulla Sutherland
WizardChips Cronulla Sutherland
UnderTheHighBall Penrith
2766267 Penrith
pundit14 Penrith
qldmaroon7 Penrith
Chothemaster Manly Warringah
Abenator Manly Warringah
nymphz Melbourne
fleakill New Zealand

Users previous tips

user R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 Top 8 left
2766267 BRI MEL SOU CRO NQL EAS NZL PEN 1
Abenator STG BRI CAN CRO SOU EAS PEN MAN 2
Chothemaster SOU BRI NEW CRO MEL EAS NZL MAN 2
fleakill SOU CAN NEW CRO MEL EAS PEN NZL 2
nymphz STG BRI SOU CRO EAS PEN NZL MEL 0
pundit14 STG BRI SOU CRO MEL EAS NZL PEN 0
qldmaroon7 STG CAN SOU CRO MEL EAS NZL PEN 1
Tunza SOU BRI EAS NEW NQL PEN NZL CRO 2
UnderTheHighBall GLD CAN SOU CRO MEL EAS MAN PEN 3
WizardChips STG BRI SOU EAS MEL PEN NZL CRO 0
6
6 comments
4
Posted by
Gavin Badger
2 hours ago
Stickied post

Welcome to the random footy talk thread. These threads are posted in the morning of every day that has a match on so people can talk about anything footy related that doesn't quite deserve it's own top level post.

4
50 comments
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Brighten a child's day and sign up for Reddit Gifts Children's books exchange by August 19th!

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30
Posted by
Gavin Badger
14 hours ago
Round 23

Information
Kick-Off 7:50 PM
Kick-Off (NZ) 9:50 PM
Televised Nine / Fox League

Reddit-Stream comments

30
2.2k comments
14
Posted by
North Queensland Cowboys
18 hours ago

Full gambling statistics

A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis some of which I've started to share.

The purpose of these threads is to identify which teams current have gambling value, and which teams do not. A team’s value is subject to several external factors; recent performance, line-ups, strength of opponent, venue, rest, club stability, motivation, expected crowd, travel, where the bookies set the odds and how the public influence the odds with action after the market opens.

Although the bookie edge for a head-to-head market is around 5%; you can still find value weekly in the NRL by using a combination of statistical and subjective analysis.

 

Performance so far this year

If you had an initial investment of $100, and staked $10 per game:

Best Value

You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 32.9%;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.20 $118.60
Roosters (16) $2.20 LOSE $10.00 $108.60
Titans (16) $2.65 WIN $10.00 $26.50 $125.10
Storm (17) $1.58 WIN $10.00 $15.80 $130.90
Raiders (17) $1.45 WIN $10.00 $14.50 $135.40
Knights (18) $2.10 WIN $10.00 $21.00 $146.40
Broncos (18) $1.65 LOSE $10.00 $136.40
Raiders (19) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $126.40
Sea Eagles (19) $2.60 LOSE $10.00 $116.40
Bulldogs (20) $2.85 WIN $10.00 $28.50 $134.90
Titans (20) $2.80 WIN $10.00 $28.00 $152.90
Broncos (20) $1.80 WIN $10.00 $18.00 $160.90
Knights (21) $2.10 LOSE $10.00 $150.90
Rabbitohs (21) $2.20 WIN $10.00 $22.00 $162.90
Titans (22) $3.00 LOSE $10.00 $152.90
Bulldogs (22) $2.30 LOSE $10.00 $142.90
Rabbitohs (22) $1.91 LOSE $10.00 $132.90

Worst Value

You would have an ROI of -52.10% ;

Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
Broncos (16) $1.65 WIN 10 $16.50 $38.80
Sharks (18) $1.67 WIN 10 $16.70 $45.50
Tigers (18) $3.15 WIN 10 $31.50 $67.00
Panthers (19) $1.96 LOSE $10 $57.00
Eels (20) $4.20 LOSE $10 $47.00
Storm (20) $1.31 WIN 10 $13.10 $50.10
Broncos (21) $1.30 LOSE 10 $40.10
Panthers (21) $1.38 WIN 10 $13.80 $43.90
Dragons (22) $1.45 LOSE 10 $33.90
Tigers (22) $2.40 WIN 10 $24.00 $47.90

 

Last Week

Best Value – Titans, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs

Three tips three losses for the best value teams – unfortunately the Titans while having significant value @ $3 concede a try on the last tackle of the Panthers set with <30seconds left. Although the Titans had significant value; the Bulldogs or Rabbitohs did not so it’s hard to fall into the gamblers hole of almost winning after two consecutive poor selections

Worst Value – Dragons, Tigers

Pegged the Dragons nicely who had some of the worst value so far this year paying $1.45 and losing by >30; and surprisingly given their start the Tigers almost managed to hand the Raiders a loss in the dying moments, although the Tigers were easily the value team – another poor selection

 

Best Value

Gold Coast Titans

As a gambler, chasing losses is one of the more self-destructive moves you can make. While I’m not a fan of selecting the same team as best value in back-to-back weeks – I really cant fathom the Titans current price. Even before coaching dramas are triaged, the Sea Eagles should not be such heavy favoutires against a similarly ranked team like the Titans, and while the Gold Coast are sporadic in their performances – they are not as poor as their current value.

Odds: $2.85 @ Manly; Line: +6.5.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Again, the Bulldogs find their way into this thread. While I’m not ecstatic about having them here in consecutive weeks, especially after their performance in round 22 – they are a healthy price against an erratic Warriors outfit. While I’m not one for overreactions to small samples, especially with young halves, Lachlan Lewis is an important player for the way this Bulldogs team plays both offensively and defensively, and his return after missing last week should not go underestimated.

Odds: $2.55 V Warriors; Line: +4.5

 

Worst Value

North Queensland Cowboys

After starting the season with extraordinarily poor value, the Cowboys have trended towards being the value side in recent weeks. This value resurgence seems to be over with their current valuation this week playing away against a steaming Sharks side with their best player Taumololo suspended. I’m usually don’t like predicting heavy score lines, but this could get ugly for the Cowboys who’s current value has been inflated in the preceding weeks by struggling teams such as the Broncos and Knights.

Odds: $3.10 @ Sharks; Line: +8.5

Sydney Roosters

This could be disingenuous to an outstanding team, but I’m not sure I like the Roosters in this game. I acknowledge I have poorly rated the Raiders for most of this season, however playing at home against a Roosters team with limited motivation before the finals is not accurately reflected in the current odds. While the Roosters outplayed the Rabbitohs last week, I’m still uncertain about Mattherson in the halves and some of their rotation forwards – Aubusson and Napa in particular. This could be a long-shot, but I’m willing to take the gamble to bet against the Roosters this week.

Odds: $1.40 @ Raiders; Line: -6.5

Thread with added Value Graphs

14
23 comments
7
Posted by
Gavin Badger
18 hours ago
Round 23
7:50 AEST
Lang Park
7
103 comments
8
Posted by
Parramatta Eels
20 hours ago

I’m in the process of designing my own NRL league, including relocating and rebranding all 16 teams. This includes designing logos and eventually uniforms for each team. I’m interested in hearing any ideas or recommendations for team names/logos e.t.c

The relocation of teams have been set; -Sydney -Sydney -Western Sydney/Parramatta -Central Coast/Gosford -Newcastle -Illawarra -Canberra -Brisbane -Brisbane/Ipswich -Gold Coast -Townsville/North Queensland -Melbourne -Adelaide -Perth -Auckland -Wellington

8
71 comments
6
Posted by
I'M A STATS MAN
20 hours ago

Picture

Metres

Rank Player Team Matches Runs Metres Per Game Ave Run PCM LB TB OL PTB
1 Blake Ferguson Sydney 21 423 4161 198.14 9.84 1413 16 80 8 3.29
2 Jason Taumalolo North Queensland 21 371 3719 177.1 10.02 1568 5 92 19 3.72
3 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck New Zealand 19 343 3478 183.05 10.14 897 12 100 28 3.85
4 James Tedesco Sydney 19 315 3454 181.79 10.97 947 12 118 18 3.81
5 Martin Taupau Manly 21 338 3416 162.67 10.11 1153 1 92 64 3.41
6 David Klemmer Canterbury 19 347 3354 176.53 9.67 1381 0 34 22 3.69
7 Will Hopoate Canterbury 21 364 3297 157 9.06 938 4 65 35 3.78
8 Tom Trbojevic Manly 19 343 3268 172 9.53 763 15 94 30 3.37
9 Ken Maumalo New Zealand 19 313 2992 157.47 9.56 1079 5 59 10 3.24
10 Matthew Lodge Brisbane 21 305 2827 134.62 9.27 947 3 51 20 3.28
11 Valentine Holmes Cronulla 20 258 2817 140.85 10.92 730 20 62 13 3.71
12 Esan Marsters Wests 21 299 2770 131.9 9.26 908 9 61 45 3.52
13 Kyle Feldt North Queensland 21 292 2769 131.86 9.48 904 11 73 8 3.02
14 Kalyn Ponga Newcastle 19 296 2750 144.74 9.29 548 12 134 11 4.02
15 Aaron Woods Cronulla 20 314 2725 136.25 8.68 1050 0 7 32 3.2
16 Jake Trbojevic Manly 20 319 2682 134.1 8.41 847 4 19 13 3.08
17 Corey Oates Brisbane 19 242 2673 140.68 11.05 908 14 73 2 3.23
18 Matthew Dufty St George Illawarra 21 258 2669 127.1 10.34 475 15 86 7 3.73
19 Andrew Fifita Cronulla 20 334 2659 132.95 7.96 825 2 82 62 3.45
20 Shaun Kenny-Dowall Newcastle 21 313 2650 126.19 8.47 831 5 65 14 2.91

Tackling

Rank Player Team Matches Tackles MT IT Tackle % % of Team
1 Jake Friend Sydney 21 935 58 37 90.78% 13.55%
2 Cameron McInnes St George Illawarra 21 898 30 36 93.15% 13.5%
3 Jake Trbojevic Manly 20 845 25 32 93.68% 13.19%
4 Aidan Guerra Newcastle 21 837 67 32 89.42% 11.78%
5 Andrew McCullough Brisbane 19 833 35 20 93.81% 12.13%
6 Matthew Eisenhuth Wests 21 825 52 25 91.46% 11.11%
7 Damien Cook South Sydney 19 822 43 38 91.03% 12.27%
8 Cameron Smith Melbourne 20 820 34 36 92.13% 12.2%
9 Ryan James Gold Coast 20 806 68 28 89.36% 12.02%
10 Jake Granville North Queensland 21 787 69 34 88.43% 11.75%
11 Daniel Alvaro Parramatta 19 748 24 31 93.15% 10.14%
12 James Fisher-Harris Penrith 21 729 73 21 88.58% 11.04%
13 Josh Jackson Canterbury 21 724 54 24 90.27% 10.82%
14 Elijah Taylor Wests 16 677 57 18 90.03% 9.12%
15 Angus Crichton South Sydney 19 659 44 28 90.15% 9.83%
16 Jayden Brailey Cronulla 21 647 31 28 91.64% 9.98%
16 Coen Hess North Queensland 20 647 33 30 91.13% 9.66%
18 Herman Ese'ese Newcastle 20 641 37 11 93.03% 9.02%
19 Jack de Belin St George Illawarra 20 635 29 26 92.03% 9.54%
20 Elliott Whitehead Canberra 21 633 68 34 86.12% 9.84%

Kicking

Rank Player Team Matches Kicks Kick Metres 40/20 Forced Dropouts Kicked Dead
1 Cooper Cronk Sydney 20 245 7054 2 12 8
2 Anthony Milford Brisbane 21 235 7151 2 17 8
3 Adam Reynolds South Sydney 18 226 6367 0 14 4
4 Ben Hunt St George Illawarra 20 220 6235 0 13 5
5 Ashley Taylor Gold Coast 20 214 5660 0 11 9
6 Daly Cherry-Evans Manly 21 212 5334 2 12 4
7 Chad Townsend Cronulla 21 207 5577 0 12 5
8 Luke Brooks Wests 21 190 4696 1 21 6
9 James Maloney Penrith 19 183 4512 1 15 3
10 Johnathan Thurston North Queensland 21 180 3711 0 22 6
11 Mitchell Moses Parramatta 19 169 4472 0 17 1
12 Blake Green New Zealand 20 164 4584 2 14 5
12 Corey Norman Parramatta 20 164 4306 0 21 2
14 Mitchell Pearce Newcastle 12 161 4768 1 5 2
15 Benji Marshall Wests 18 143 3959 0 10 8
16 Aidan Sezer Canberra 18 131 3387 0 9 3
16 Gareth Widdop St George Illawarra 21 131 3013 1 8 5
18 Shaun Johnson New Zealand 15 124 3308 1 6 5
19 Cameron Smith Melbourne 20 95 2919 0 4 6
20 Nathan Cleary Penrith 12 92 2383 1 2 2

Playmaking

Rank Player Team Matches LB Assists Try Assists Total Assists Pass % Error %
1 Johnathan Thurston North Queensland 21 19 17 36 76.26% 1.82%
2 Luke Keary Sydney 18 12 17 29 76.79% 3.43%
2 Ashley Taylor Gold Coast 20 12 17 29 72.38% 3.24%
2 Gareth Widdop St George Illawarra 21 13 16 29 68.4% 4.1%
5 Matt Moylan Cronulla 19 14 14 28 74.7% 3.1%
6 Cameron Munster Melbourne 19 12 15 27 61.26% 2.4%
7 Ben Hunt St George Illawarra 20 11 15 26 70.17% 1.11%
8 Alex Johnston South Sydney 19 14 11 25 56.93% 2.72%
8 Cody Walker South Sydney 21 14 11 25 82.48% 2.76%
10 Daly Cherry-Evans Manly 21 11 13 24 69.71% 1.61%
11 Kalyn Ponga Newcastle 19 13 10 23 53.96% 3.59%
11 Luke Brooks Wests 21 14 9 23 68.21% 1.89%
13 Corey Norman Parramatta 20 9 12 21 67.12% 1.16%
13 Blake Green New Zealand 20 11 10 21 77.75% 1.17%
15 Tom Trbojevic Manly 19 9 11 20 46.98% 4.76%
16 James Maloney Penrith 19 10 9 19 69.09% 2.66%
17 Adam Reynolds South Sydney 18 8 10 18 68.06% 0.93%
18 Shaun Johnson New Zealand 15 7 10 17 73.33% 1.78%
18 Jack Wighton Canberra 13 9 8 17 45.63% 2.54%
18 Michael Morgan North Queensland 11 9 8 17 66.24% 3.09%

Scoring

Rank Player Team Matches Points Tries Conv PG FG Kicking %
1 Latrell Mitchell Sydney 19 196 12 52 22 0 79.57%
2 Gareth Widdop St George Illawarra 21 191 4 58 29 1 82.86%
3 Jamayne Isaako Brisbane 21 185 9 52 22 1 84.09%
4 Cameron Smith Melbourne 20 165 1 58 22 1 82.47%
5 Adam Reynolds South Sydney 18 155 3 46 25 1 73.96%
6 Jarrod Croker Canberra 17 154 7 46 17 0 78.75%
7 Daly Cherry-Evans Manly 21 138 6 38 18 2 80%
8 Johnathan Thurston North Queensland 21 136 3 41 21 0 75.61%
9 Chad Townsend Cronulla 21 135 2 41 21 3 75.61%
10 Michael Gordon Gold Coast 20 132 4 44 14 0 81.69%
11 James Maloney Penrith 19 121 3 30 23 3 86.88%
12 Esan Marsters Wests 21 114 3 32 19 0 82.26%
13 Shaun Johnson New Zealand 15 112 4 36 10 4 79.31%
14 Mitchell Moses Parramatta 19 102 4 34 9 0 81.13%
15 Valentine Holmes Cronulla 20 92 19 7 1 0 80%
15 Moses Mbye Wests 20 92 5 21 15 0 78.26%
17 Kalyn Ponga Newcastle 19 78 6 21 6 0 72.97%
17 Ken Sio Newcastle 17 78 9 17 4 0 72.41%
19 Rhyse Martin Canterbury 11 72 4 19 9 0 96.55%
20 Josh Addo-Carr Melbourne 19 68 17 0 0 0 0%

Goofs

Rank Player Team Matches Errors Penalties MT Goofs Goofs per Game
1 James Maloney Penrith 19 26 14 144 184 9.7
2 Luke Brooks Wests 21 20 19 91 130 6.2
3 Johnathan Thurston North Queensland 21 22 16 84 122 5.8
4 Ben Hunt St George Illawarra 20 11 7 94 112 5.6
4 Gareth Widdop St George Illawarra 21 34 9 69 112 5.3
6 Matt Moylan Cronulla 19 26 16 69 111 5.8
7 Mitchell Moses Parramatta 19 19 16 75 110 5.8
7 Chad Townsend Cronulla 21 14 14 82 110 5.2
9 Issac Luke New Zealand 19 15 21 71 107 5.6
10 Elliott Whitehead Canberra 21 16 21 68 105 5
11 Sam Burgess South Sydney 17 20 23 61 104 6.1
12 Jake Granville North Queensland 21 12 18 69 99 4.7
13 Ashley Taylor Gold Coast 20 35 13 50 98 4.9
14 Ryan James Gold Coast 20 7 22 68 97 4.9
15 Brian Kelly Manly 21 17 10 68 95 4.5
16 Cody Walker South Sydney 21 29 16 49 94 4.5
17 Alex Glenn Brisbane 18 9 13 71 93 5.2
18 Dane Gagai South Sydney 19 21 4 66 91 4.8
18 Mitchell Barnett Newcastle 20 14 15 62 91 4.6
20 Cameron Munster Melbourne 19 16 18 56 90 4.7
6
4 comments
10
Posted by
Gavin Badger
1 day ago

It's the Thursday /r/NRL Off Topic Thread. Talk about anything that's happening and anything you want, but only after getting your dingo updates from diegoNT.

10
165 comments
6
Posted by
Gavin Badger
1 day ago

For all the pre-weekend hype and your predictions for the upcoming round.

6
56 comments
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