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56

UFC 226 Miocic vs Cormier 07 07 2018

updated fites card

Fight Card

DivisionFighters
HeavyweightStipe Miocic (c) vs. Daniel Cormier
HeavyweightFrancis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis
WelterweightPaul Felder vs. Mike Perry
LightweightMichael Chiesa vs. Anthony Pettis
Light HeavyweightGökhan Saki vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
DivisionFighters
MiddleweightUriah Hall vs. Paulo Costa
BantamweightRaphael Assunção vs. Rob Font
LightweightLando Vannata vs. Drakkar Klose
WelterweightCurtis Millender vs. Max Griffin

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

DivisionFighters
LightweightDan Hooker vs. Gilbert Burns
Women's StrawweightJamie Moyle vs. Emily Whitmire

"previous discussion": http://goedhartvoordieren.nl/?page=r/sportsbook/comments/8tfpxo/ufc226_early_discussion_and_breakdown/

ultimate fiters discuss: http://goedhartvoordieren.nl/?page=r/sportsbook/comments/8uqjbh/the_ultimate_fighter_tuf_27_finale/

245 comments
93% Upvoted
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level 1
2 points · 1 month ago

Vegas made some money tonight....UFC is starting to look like WWE. Francis fight was the worst UFC fight in history.

level 1

Thank you DC!

P.S. What a shit-show when Brock came in the ring. He bruised his reputation the minute he opened his mouth talking shit about Stipe.

level 2

i started the card 0/5 but the DC win saved me in the end. blessed dc

level 2

That whole thing was a shit show. Push had to have been staged, otherwise Lesnar would've gotten swarmed no?

level 3
1 point · 1 month ago

Yeah, DC and Brock are good friends and everyone involved (other than that random DC guy who shoved Brock) had a big smile on their face the entire segment.

level 4
redditor for 2 months1 point · 1 month ago

I also found it kinda funny when that small guy 'pushed' Brock, he didn't even look like he felt anything

level 3

I’m not quite sure. Staged or not I don’t think anyone would swarm Lesnar lol. What I found weird was how quickly Lesnar’s facial expression changed when he entered the Octagon. Thought he was gonna come in and be nice to Cormier at first.

level 1

WHAT THE FUCK, DC WINS IN 1ST ROUND? WOW.

level 1

Holy fucking shit. Huge parlay win but I seriously did not expect that. DC is the 🐐.

level 1
redditor for 2 months2 points · 1 month ago

CONGRATS BOYS

level 1

Ty dc

level 1

HOLY SHIT

level 1
2 points · 1 month ago

That was a fixed fight

level 2

Nice downvotes when this comment was during the aftermath of Francis Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis fight where it was literally 33 strikes thrown between the two in a full fight

level 2

I think Lesnar shoving Cormier was fixed. No way do I think Stipe was in on the plan of being knocked out.

level 2

Never thought I'd believe it but with the WWE antics having Lesnar come in, I think so.

level 3
4 points · 1 month ago

was talking about Francis Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis

level 3
redditor for 8 days1 point · 1 month ago

lesnar was coming in either way. That was scheduled, but the fight outcome was obviously not

level 2
2 points · 1 month ago

howso

level 1
redditor for 2 months4 points · 1 month ago

Lol Ngannou worked up a lot of debts in Vegas that he had to throw this fight to pay it off. The line went from -330 to -300 right before the fight.

level 2

The line movement was nowhere near as huge as the last minute money on say, Carla Esparza vs Claudia Gadelha.

That said, this fight REALLY felt fixed. Ngannou looked like he was hurt or his entire gameplan was to lose the fight in a safe fashion.

I understand when high level fights can be boring as shit, like Wonderboy vs Till or Wonderboy vs Woodley 2, but this WAY too passive from someone who wasn't hurt.

After seeing round 1 and even 2, you'd THINK Ngannou would push the pace or at least be aggressive.

level 2
3 points · 1 month ago

The line went from -330 to -300 right before the fight.

It's not unusual for people to jump on the plus odds right before a fight.

level 2
Comment deleted1 month ago
level 3

Tbh, that's the only explanation I have. There's no way he didn't know he was down 2 rounds in the 3rd and he still didn't throw ANYTHING.
This shit is fishy.

level 1

Instead of relaxing beach sounds, I will now put on Ngannou vs Lewis to get myself ready for bed.

level 2

How many Degenerates BET : No decision on that BS (Hand raised)

level 3

I took Lewis by knockout. Who would have fucking guessed lewis by decision. 30-27? Holy fuck what a snoozefest.

level 1

Wtf was that shit

level 1

Does over 1.5 rounds means if they go to round 2 I win?

level 2

It means you win when it crosses 2:30 mark in round 2.

level 3
redditor for 2 months2 points · 1 month ago

Well no worries there...what a dumpster fire that fight was.

level 4

one of the worst fights all time. about 50 strikes thrown total in 15 minutes

level 1

Everybody in this thread is on DC. Congrats on the win, Stipe.

level 2

Yeah huge win for Stipe

level 3

OOPSIES!

level 2

It's all about Ngannou by KO now

level 1

This card has fucking raped my bankroll holy shit

level 2

I think a lot of people on the sub and discord lost.

level 2
3 points · 1 month ago

Yup. Sad night.

level 2

All underdogs

level 1

Holy shit...

level 2

Petis did it for me.... bye bye parlay

level 3

Yeah I should have posted my picks so far so people could go the opposite. Like the world cup...

level 2

Saki just fucked everybody's start to this card.

level 3

Did he do it? Or did rountree? Haha Can't believe that though. I just went "oh fuck" after I heard that smack because I happened to turn away right then.

level 1
UFC 226 Risk $5117.50

Daniel Cormier (+200) vs Stipe Miocic $200.00 for $400.00
Stipe Miocic wins in round 1 (+500) $25.00 for $125.00
Stipe Miocic wins in round 2 (+700) $35.00 for $245.00
Daniel Cormier/Stipe Miocic Over 3½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Daniel Cormier wins by 5 round decision (+415) $25.00 for $103.75

Derrick Lewis/Francis Ngannou Over 1½ (+140) $75.00 for $105.00
Francis Ngannou wins by KO/TKO/DQ (-160) $120.00 for $75.00
Francis Ngannou wins in round 1 (+135) $65.00 for $87.75
Derrick Lewis/Francis Ngannou fight ends in round 2 (+330) $35.00 for $115.50
Derrick Lewis/Francis Ngannou fight ends in round 3 (+330) $25.00 for $162.50
Derrick Lewis wins in round 3 (+2100) $15.00 for $315.00

Mike Perry/Paul Felder Over 1½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Mike Perry scorecards = no action (+116) $100.00 for $116.00
Mike Perry wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+332) $35.00 for $116.20
Mike Perry wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+332) $35.00 for $116.20
Mike Perry wins in round 2 (+800) $15.00 for $120.00
Mike Perry wins in round 3 (+1400) $15.00 for $210.00
Paul Felder wins by 3 round decision (+321) $75.00 for $240.75

Michael Chiesa (-150) vs Anthony Pettis $150.00 for $100.00
Michael Chiesa (-155) vs Anthony Petttis $310.00 for $200.00
Michael Chiesa -3½ points (+120) $200.00 for $240.00
Michael Chiesa wins by submission (+230) ~$52.00 for ~$119.60
Michael Chiesa wins in round 3 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Michael Chiesa wins in round 3 or by decision (+180) ~$32.50 for ~$58.50
Michael Chiesa/Anthony Pettis won’t go 3 round distance (-105) $105.00 for $100.00

Gokhan Saki (-130) vs Khalil Rountree $260.00 for $200.00
Gokhan Saki (-134) vs Khalil Rountree $134.00 for $100.00
Gokhan Saki (-135) vs Khalil Rountree $135.00 for $100.00
Gokhan Saki wins by TKO/KO (+100) $75.00 for $75.00
Gokhan Saki wins in round 1 (+210) ~$71.50 for ~$150.15
Gokhan Saki wins in round 1 (+200) $40.00 for $80.00
Gokhan Saki wins in round 2 (+550) $20.00 for $110.00

Paulo Costa (-290) vs Uriah Hall $290.00 for $100.00
Paulo Costa wins by TKO/KO (-145) $58.00 for $40.00
Paulo Costa wins by submission (+1400) $25.00 for $350.00
Paulo Costa wins in round 1 (+130) $50.00 for $65.00
Paulo Costa/Uriah Hall Under 1½ (-155) $155.00 for $100.00

Rob Font scorecards= no action (-140) vs Raphael Assuncao $210.00 for $150.00
Rob Font wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+475) $25.00 for $118.75

Drakkar Klose (+160) vs Lano Vannata $200.00 for $320.00
Lando Vannata wins by TKO/KO (+352) $45.00 for $158.40
Drakkar Klose/Lando Vannata Draw (+7000) $10.00 for $700.00

Curtis Millender (-157) vs Max Griffin $157.00 for $100.00

Gilbert Burns (+145) vs Daniel Hooker $200.00 for $290.00
Gilbert Burns (+140) vs Dan Hooker $200.00 for $280.00
Gilbert Burns wins inside distance (+260) $40.00 for $104.00
Gilbert Burns wins by submission (+380) $40.00 for $152.00
Gilbert Burns wins by submission in round 1 (+800) ~$26.00 for ~$208.00

Jamie Moyle wins by submission (+670) ~$26.00 for ~$174.20
Jamie Moyle/Emily Whitmire fights ends in submission (+500) ~$26.00 for ~$130.00

Fights to end in submission over 1½ (+104) ~$26.00 for ~$27.04
Fights to end in submission over 1½ (-120) $48.00 for $40.00
Fights to end in submission over 2½ (+400) $15.00 for $60.00
Fights to end in submission over 3½ (+1415) $10.00 for $141.50
Fights to end in submission over 4½ (+6425) $3.00 for $192.75
Fights to end in submission over 5½ (+44600) $2.00 for $892.00

Daniel Cormier/Stipe Miocic wins FOTN bonus (+240) ~$45.50 for ~$109.20

Parlays:
Max Holloway/Brian Ortega starts round 2 (-565) + Daniel Cormier/Stipe Miocic starts round 2 (-485) $250.00 for $104.92
Paulo Costa/Uriah Hall won’t start round 3 (-227) + Gokhan Saki/Khalil Rountree won’t start round 3 (-274) $150.00 for $144.94 
level 1

My Picks, I have a 95% winning rate. Dont believe me??? There's my slip below from last nights TUF 27 Card. I got a clean sweep. I know what I'm doing.

https://i.imgur.com/WfLt8Ct.jpg

^^^ My Bet Slip From Last Night, Went 6/6

Here's my final picks for UFC 226.

  • JAMIE MOYLE vs EMILY WHITMIRE (115) Moyle has the better resume and has recently went to Team Alpha Male. And she's fought the tougher competition in the UFC. PICK - JAMIE MOYLE.

  • DAN HOOKER vs GILBERT BURNS (155) Hooker is a lot more comfortable at '55, but has never been anything special. But he has learned how to throw those big shots when people attempt to get to close to him. Never really been a fan of either of these guys, but Burns is a grappler who is still trying to get use to his striking, while Hooker is a generic fighter with length who IS comfortable with his striking and grappling, even though it's nothing special. PICK - DAN HOOKER.

  • CURTIS MILLENDER vs MAX GRIFFIN (170) I like both these guys, they both have a similar style and build. But I'd probably lean towards Millender just because he's got more experience, even though Griffin has more UFC experience. But nonetheless, I'd avoid picking a clear winner. I'd go with the DEC or Over 2.5 PICK - OVER 2.5

  • LANDO VANETTA vs DRAKAR KLOSE (155) This is a fun fight, but damn, what's up with the UFC giving Vanetta all these wars, lol. Klose is pretty tough and will definitely be riding the cage in this fight, and attempt to throw out his leg kicks. Vanetta is the safer pick, but overall, if you're going to parlay, I'd go with the over. I doubt either one of these guys can put the other away. PICK - OVER 2.5

  • RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO vs ROB FONT (135) Good fight, but I gotta go with Assuncao. I was really impressed with Font's performance again Almedia. But unlike Thomas, Raphael doesn't suffer from a slow start. Assuncao is really coming into his own, and finding ways to win. This is a close fight, but I'm leaning towards Assuncao. Wouldn't bet the over/under mainly because of these 2 finishing rates. PICK - RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO

  • URIAH HALL vs PAULO COSTA (185) This is my most anticipated fight of the night. I'll let it be known now, I'm not a fan of Costa's style. It's very risky, especially at 185. His last 2 wins were against a washed up Hendricks and freaking Bamgbose. If you cant tell by first 3 sentences, I'm picking Hall in this. YES, FREAKING URIAH HALL. I would not parlay Hall at all. But I have him beating Costa here. These 2 both fought on the same TUF season, and as we all know, Uriah made it to the finale. But Costa has gotten a lot better. But Hall is always an X factor. I honestly feel Costa might get tired of stalking Hall or get clipped coming in. Imo, this is a tough fight for both, but Hall at +240 is a very appealing. Either way, this is a good fight. PICK - URIAH HALL

---------------------------------------------------------------- MAIN CARD

  • GOKHAN SAKI vs KHALIL ROUNTREE JR. (205) I like Khalil, he seems like a really cool dude. But putting money on Rountree in 2018 is DUMB MOVE. I should be saying pick Saki easily. But Saki was getting a little gassed in his fight against Henrique. And we never know, if Rountree will turn into a wrestler in this fight. Very hard to call. Overall this is really tough to pick, so yes, Im gonna puss out on a clear pick. Going for the main card prop bet. PICK - OVER 1.5 (+120)

  • MICHAEL CHIESA vs ANTHONY PETTIS (155) Like both these guys, but Pettis, believe it or not, might actually have an edge in this fight. The last tall fighter he fought Cerrone, and clipped him up badly. Chiesa hits hard, but dosen't really have good boxing or footwork. He stands very still, he pretty much a grappling Diaz brother. He comes forward to grapple, which is bad news for Pettis. I was leaning towards Chiesa, but after he missed weight, and him coming off a long lay off, combine that with his stationary stance, and Pettis' tendency to throw a body kick, believe it or not, I'm going with Pettis. It's a dangerous pick, I'd go with 2 rounds completion just to be safe. But overall PICK - ANTHONY PETTIS.

  • PAUL FELDER vs MIKE PERRY (170) Perry just cannot take a break with these wars, lol. Perry's active schedule has pretty much exposed him, unless Felder comes into this fight trying brawl, which he's definitely willing to do probably. But I just dont see Perry's game getting any better than it was in his last fight. He's recently lost his girl, so he's most likely not there mentally. And he doesn't take enough time off to improve his game. PICK - PAUL FELDER

  • FRANCIS NGANNOU vs DERRICK LEWIS (265) This is not going to DEC, I repeat, THIS IS NOT GOING TO DEC. Ngannou always stalks, Lewis can explode at any point. Big difference between Stipe taking Francis to DEC, was Stipe's takedown threat, something Ngannou had to avoid. Lewis will not use his takedown threat often in the fight. Most of the time these guys go long in fights, is because of their opponent trying to grind them out. Neither will attempt that in this fight. It's really hard to pick a winner, but if you want a safe parlay pick.... PICK - FIGHT DOES NOT GO TO DEC

  • STIPE MIOCIC vs DANIEL CORMIER (265) Superfight time. On the surface, I'm picking DC. Comparing DC's last 3 opponents to Stipe's last 3 opponents.

  1. Jones

  2. Gus

  3. Rumble

  4. Volkan

Compared to Stipe's last 3

  1. Ngannou

  2. JDS

  3. Overeem

  4. Werdum

I'd probably lean towards DC's last opponents. However, let's just keep it real. Stipe has a high chance knocking DC the fuck out. Cormier's got that big ass wrestler head though. This is a tough fight. DC has fought guys taller than Stipe and similar to his build. He's used his dirty boxing against all of those guys. But Stipe has the boxing experience. Stipe has gassed in a fight, and DC has been hurt by Silva's kicks. Both have had their weaknesses shown. But with Stipe's right hand and accuaracy. I'd lean more towards him on the feet. But I could really see DC taking him down and absolutely controlling him. If Gus, who has great boxing, and dare I say, better boxing than Stipe, and couldn't stop DC, I dont see how Stipe edge that DC, unless he hurt DC. This is a really tough one to pick, but Im not here to pick full picks. Im here to set bets, not give picks. And a very safe bet is easily the over on this. These guys can both go. I say run up on that over or 3 round completion. PICK - OVER 3.5

Hopefully I get another clean sweep, probably not, but I'm confident in these picks. Sorry If my picks are late.

level 2
redditor for 2 months1 point · 1 month ago

shiiiit I had parlay:

M Griffin/C Millender over 2½ -170 D Klose/L Vannata over 2½ -210 R Assuncao -135 K Rountree/G Saki over 1½ +130

Parlay for +850 And bc Roundtrees KO in first round I missed it by one leg

You're picks are very good tho my dude, will have to trail separately instead of parlay next time.

level 3

yeah, hasn't been my best night, but not a total lost if you dont keep just parlays

level 4
redditor for 2 months1 point · 1 month ago

I only put $10 down on that parlay to win like $90 ... never bet on UFC but will have to keep an eye out for this thread next week.

Good luck with the rest of your betting mate !!(:

level 2

95% win rate and betting $5. Seems like a missed opportunity

level 3

He was also wrong on just about eveyrthing

level 3

lost 4 so far so 95% is out the window forever

level 3

Also ONLY betting @ bovada.

level 2
redditor for 2 months3 points · 1 month ago

I find it very interesting you gave DC a good chance over Stipe and look forward to finding out in 5 hours. Personally my money is on Stipe via KO.

level 3

If I had to pick, I'd pick DC. But there's more value in and a better chance of it just going over 3.5

level 1
redditor for 2 months1 point · 1 month ago

how do u guys feel about Moyle ML?

level 2

I'm fading Moyle...pretty even fight but I like +170

level 1
13 points · 1 month ago

As awful as a start as you can get last night, but did well enough the rest of the way dig out of the hole some. Still, very bad card, ugh.

Record will updated by next week. Formatting on Reddit stopped working for some reason, so have to redo it. Sorry about how screwed up this looks.

Good luck, everyone!

🎆🎆🎆 UFC 226: MIOCIC VS CORMIER 🎆🎆🎆




Daniel Cormier (60%) to defeat Stipe Miocic
Cormier and Miocic goes OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (65%) 🥝🥝🥝

FRANCIS NGANNOU (80%) to defeat Derrick Lewis 🍍🍍🍍
Ngannou and Lewis goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)

PAUL FELDER (70%) to defeat Mike Perry 🍇🍇🍇
Felder and Perry goes OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (85%) 🍍🍍🍍

Felder is a smart guy and has seen how Perry loses fights, so he's not going to be baited into a dumb brawl. Felder hits hard, but he's going up in weight; I won't believe Perry can be stopped until it happens.


MICHAEL CHIESA (70%) to defeat Anthony Pettis 🍇🍇🍇
Chiesa and Pettis goes under 2.5 rounds (60%)

GOKHAN SAKI (85%) to defeat Khalil Rountree 🍍🍍🍍
Saki and Rountree goes over 1.5 rounds (55%)

Looks like very favorable matchmaking for Saki, who doesn't have to worry about much of that MMA business here. Rountree keeps approaching fights with the assumption that you're going to die in the first round. I'm not going to believe he can change that until he does, and this is by far the most talented and accomplished striker he's ever faced.


Paulo Costa (55%) to defeat Uriah Hall
Costa and Hall goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)

Raphael Assuncao (55%) to defeat Rob Font
Assuncao and Font goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

LANDO VANNATA (90%) to defeat Drakkar Klose 🍉🍉🍉
Vannata and Klose goes over 2.5 rounds (60%)

Drakkar won't be able to bully Vannata up against the cage for three rounds, he won't be able to beat him in distance striking match. His best chance is going to be to bait him into a brawl, but I think he loses that as well.

Vannata goes so hard in the beginning that he flags in the later rounds, but not so much that Klose can steal the fight.


CURTIS MILLENDER (80%) to defeat Max Griffin 🍍🍍🍍
Millender and Griffin goes under 2.5 rounds (55%)

Millender has had issues with his stamina, and it causes him to be too patient and lose rounds. He did a better reconciling this in a great debut against Thiago Alves.

A clinch game and some takedown ability would really help Griffin here, but he's had four UFC fights and it's never appeared. He's not a bad fighter, but he will struggle to read Millender's deep striking arsenal.


GILBERT BURNS (65%) to defeat Dan Hooker 🥝🥝🥝
Burns and Hooker goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

Emily Whitmire (55%) to defeat Jamie Moyle
Whitmire and Moyle goes over 2.5 rounds (60%)

level 2
-5 points · 1 month ago(2 children)
level 3

No one expected Ngannou to fight like that. But we all miss picks and have bad cards.

I hope you didn't lose a lot of money. Sending out good energy to you.

level 3

Loooool followed and lost? that was the worst fight in history - it has nothing to do with this guy giving his opinion

level 1

Where is the fruit betting woman? I always like those picks

level 2

You like to lose?

level 2

Absolute stud

level 2

usually posts like 10 min before first fight

level 3

Thanks bro

level 1
-3 points · 1 month ago

Derrick Lewis ML and Win by Decision or Technical Decision

Also a really small bet on stipe - cormier draw just because I think well start seeing more draws in the UFC sooner or later, and I think this will be a really back and forth fight.

level 2

legend!

level 3

;)

level 1
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Clip's MMA Capping


UFC 226

  • Lot's of plays on this card and there is a strong possibility of add-ons, so if you're tailing be sure to check back regularly during the card. Also keep an eye out for live bet add-ons as I've been using live betting to mitigate exposure on losing cards.

STIPE MIOCIC vs. DANIEL CORMIER

  • Arbitrage Play:

    • Miocic -165 (4u)

    • Cormier +260 (2.94u)

    • Profit = 1u

  • Miocic KO RD1 +600 (0.20u) L

  • Miocic KO RD2 +800 (0.20u) L

FRANCIS NGANNOU vs. DERRICK LEWIS

  • Lewis +345 (1u) W

  • Lewis KO/TKO +470 (0.10u) L

MICHAEL CHIESA vs. ANTHONY PETTIS

  • Chiesa -145 (1u) L

  • Chiesa SUB +245 (0.25u) L

  • Chiesa -31/2 +120 (0.50u) L

GOKHAN SAKI vs. KHALIL ROUNTREE

  • Saki -120 (2u) L

  • FGTD +405 (0.10u) L

PAULO COSTA vs. URIAH HALL

  • Hall +360 (0.50u) L

  • Costa KO/TKO (1u) W

PAUL FELDER vs. MIKE PERRY

  • Perry +140 (3u) W

  • FGTD +140 (1u) W

  • Felder DEC +320 (0.25u) L

RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO vs. ROB FONT

  • Font NSC -140 (2u) P

  • Font KO/TKO +485 (0.25u) L

DAN HOOKER vs. GILBERT BURNS

  • Burns +140 (1u) L

  • Burns SUB +380 (0.25u) L

EMILY WHITMIRE vs. JAMIE MOYLE

  • Moyle SUB +590 (0.20u) L

LANDO VANNATA vs. DRAKKAR KLOSE

  • Klose +165 (2u) W


Results: +6.55u

Updated YTD: +32.54u / 15.28% ROI


Edits:

  1. (11:00pmET, Fight Night) +2u on Perry ML play

  2. Results

level 2

226

Curious what book you use to live bet? Also any better alternative to follow your plays and it can be hard to keep checking... Twitter is very helpful if you can copy/paste your plays there as well as I am sure many others would like that as well... Love your insight. Hitting 40% and up almost +30U is outstanding. Thanks!

level 2

What do you use to live bet?

level 1
3 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Saki -170 or better. Rountree has zero takedowns in his ufc career and should be looking to knock Saki out. It's a matchup the ufc hand picked for Saki to get a win. Rountree has power but gasses quick and that's when his punches loop and Saki should take advantage.

Hall +270 or better. Now if I had to pick who wins I'd say Costa but I'm definitely not sure. It's very close imo and this value is too big to pass up. Costa's ufc opponents are a combined 2-10 at middleweight. There was a recent Brazilian name Thomas Almeida who came into the ufc around 18-0 before going on a 3 fight losing streak when he started to faced ranked opponents. Jotko is another guy who had an awesome record coming in who now is on a 3 fight skid including a ko loss to Hall. Hall also has a 7 inch reach advantage and can counter strike well to the agressive Costa.

Cormier +160 or better. DC and Stipe are both world class fighters. Stipe is a great wrestler but not the olympic level DC is and he has never faced that. DC has 2 losses in his career both to an undefeated Jon Jones who was on the juice. Stipe also has 2. One to a mid tier fighter named Stefan Struve and the other to a heavyweight legend JDS who Stipe ko'd in the rematch. Stipe has brutal KO power but if DC can avoid Stipe at full energy trying to knock his head off then his chances should improve as the fight goes on. DC should have a cardio advantage and it'll be determined that night who wins the clinch exchanges and stand up. DC has held his own on the feet with world class strikers such as Gustaffson, Anthony Johnson, and Jones to an extent. Stipe has more tools to finish the fight but I believe DC will show he's the better overall fighter if he can take this far enough that Stipe gets tired and DC can more easily apply his dominante wrestling.

Late adds: Felder -165 or better. He has a better resume and has shown improvments while Perry has not. Perry is a striker who's been outstruck by every good striker he's faced.

Lewis +210 or better. Lewis has the power to knock anyone out. He also has shown some decent wrestling he may use while Francis hasnt showed any signs of a good ground game.

level 1
Comment deleted1 month ago
level 2

I'd not be so sure about the Pettis bet, dude has been on a horrendous downturn lately and only turns it up when he's 2 rounds down, and even giving him the edge in grappling (which I don't think is fair as Chiesa is a legit ground threat).

level 3
Comment deleted1 month ago
level 4

I dont know why people think missing weight is disadvantageous..? There is a reason they have to give up 30% of their purse for missing weight and its because they now have a size advantage on the opponent

level 1
0 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago
level 2

Too many picks to have much of a chance. Every guy obviously has a chance being there all favorites but Assuscano and Chiesa are pretty evenly matched with their opponents, and Hooker's opponent is dangerous. Francis isn't worth it at that price either. Good luck.

level 2

Those are pretty predictable picks, but Millender/Griffin, Ngannou/Lewis and Hooker/Burns are real toss ups for me. This card is dangerous to pick on. I'd stick with props.

level 2

Hi, I'm a bot for linking direct images of albums with only 1 image

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Source | Why? | Creator | ignoreme | deletthis

level 1

Miocic: -175 to win 4u (will prob arb with cormier and take over rounds) Miocic/Cormier o3.5 rounds: -110 to win 1u

Ortega sub: +230 for 6u

Ortega KO: +1100 for 1u

Holloway DEC: +225 for 6u

Ngannou: -296 to win 4u

Ngannou DEC: +550 for .5u

Rountree: +155 for 4u

Roundtree DEC: +700 for .5u

Assuncao: -164 to win 2u

Perry/Felder DEC: +120 for 1u

Griffin: +162 for 2u

Griffin DEC: +350 for 1u

Millender round 1: +450 for .5u

Burns: +150 for 1u

Burns Sub: +333 for .5u

Lando KO/TKO: +300 for .5u

Whitmire: +240 for 1u

Griffin + Burns + Rountree + Ortega: 2-way Round Robin x 6u

Ngannou + Vannata: -105 for 4u

level 2
5 points · 1 month ago

Ortega/Max is off

level 3

I am aware

level 3
redditor for 2 months8 points · 1 month ago

Def don’t tail this guy lol

level 4
6 points · 1 month ago

how he post this 1 hour ago with out knowing max is out

level 4
1 point · 1 month ago

I somewhat agree with a lot of the picks. But UFC is a wild gambling sport

level 1
redditor for 2 months4 points · 1 month ago

3u on Uriah Hall @ 4.00. I'm not convinced Paulo Costa is the real deal. At 4.00 odds, the choice is easy to make.

1u on Black Beast @ 3.60. Ngannou is the rightful favorite, but this is heavyweight we're talking about. When you have two 250+ lbs men swinging at each other, shit happens.

1u on Cormier @ 2.90. I think the outcome of this fight will feel obvious in hindsight. People will say "Of course Cormier ragdolled Stipe for 5 rounds" or "Of course Stipe stuffed the takedowns and boxed Cormier at range for 5 rounds". I choose to put my money on the underdog.

1u on Felder @ 1.67. Perry does not impress me. He had no footwork against Max Griffin, which is not good if you're a striker. I think Felder will avoid the brawl and win with his superior striking.

1u on Chiesa @ 1.61. I think Chiesa will just be too big for Pettis, and Pettis is just so fadeable.

level 2
4 points · 1 month ago

Yeah. Lewis and Hall both feel like they should be way closer to like +150. Not something I'd take a huge amount of units on, but I'd be surprised if one of them doesn't hit.

level 1

Didn't have time to update parts of the record, but the spreadsheet of my straight picks should be updated.

For the detailed results from 2018, click here!

Like this card a lot. See you tomorrow for the other one, and good luck.






🎆🎆🎆 THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 27 FINALE: TAVARES VS ADESANYA 🎆🎆🎆

Brad Tavares (55%) to defeat Israel Adesanya
Tavares and Adesanya goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (80%) 🍍🍍🍍

Mike Trizano (55%) to defeat Joe Giannetti
Trizano and Giannetti goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

BRAD KATONA (65%) to defeat Jay Cucciniello 🥝🥝🥝
Katona and Cucciniello goes under 2.5 rounds (55%)

Martin Bravo (60%) to defeat Alex Caceres
Bravo and Caceres goes over 2.5 rounds (60%)

BARB HONCHAK (70%) to defeat Roxanne Modafferi 🍇🍇🍇
Honchak and Modafferi goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (85%) 🍍🍍🍍

Julian Marquez (60%) to defeat Alessio Di Chirico

Fight is going to be a mess. Both guys will gas at some point in the second, Marquez has the skills to fight past that and remain effective on offensive.

Marquez and Di Chirico goes OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (75%) 🍇🍇🍇

MONTANA DE LA ROSA (65%) to defeat Rachael Ostovich 🥝🥝🥝

Two girls who are both making steady improvements. I like Rachael's striking here, but don't see there being able to pull that far ahead with it. Her only relevant wins are against girls that are weak on the ground and made huge mistakes.

When Montana loses, she gets killed. But she's the kills come from girls with elite ground games like Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo, or excellent takedown defense like Nicco Montano. Rachael is capable in both aspects, but her grappling and wrestling are prone to sloppiness; Montana looks more skilled, has better control, more of an idea of what direction to move in next. Each takedown could win her a round.

De La Rosa and Ostovich goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (70%) 🍇🍇🍇

LUIS PENA (85%) to defeat Richie Smullen 🍍🍍🍍

Both these guys are only a few fights into their careers, but Smullen's wins are of scary low quality. His most recent fight was a majority draw, but his three wins were against guys that entered in at a combined 1-0, currently at combined 2-5. Doesn't look good at all.

Pena is way better offensively, and I don't see how Smullen's wrestling slows it down enough for him win here.

Pena and Smullen goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)

JOHN GUNTHER (65%) to defeat Allen Zuniga 🍍🍍🍍
Gunther and Zuniga goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

TYLER DIAMOND (80%) to defeat Bryce Mitchell 🍍🍍🍍

Tyler outwrestles, overwhelms Mitchell.

Diamond and Mitchell goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

MATT BESSETTE (80%) to defeat Steven Peterson 🍍🍍🍍

Peterson's wrestling game isn't effective enough for this level, especially given that he's apparently committed moving up in weight. Peterson can be dangerous with a guillotine, but Bessette needs to make a big mistake to find himself there.

Peterson looks uncomfortable standing with all of the better opponents he's faced, and he gets sliced up standing here. Bessette can be rocked, but has some power of his own and he's the guy that's used to fighting featherweights. Peterson needs this to become a prolonged brawl and Bessette has shown enough restraint in his career that I trust him to not to indulge.

Bessette and Peterson goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (65%). 🥝🥝🥝

OSKAR PIECHOTA (95%) to defeat Gerald Meerschaert 🍉🍉🍉

Cardio concerns for Piechota, but nothing that gets him taken advantage of. He's shown nice striking with really good power, good precision, only going to keep improving.

He also has the kind of world-class jiu-jitsu that devours Meerschaert's greatest strength. Piechota should be able to get a takedown if he wants one, and he can effortlessly maneuver into workable positions. On the feet, Meerschaert isn't going to get demolished like he did against Thiago Santos, but there will be moments when he gets knocked around.

I feel a sudden finish are Meerschaert's only avenues here. He can hurt you, but the body kick on Eric Spicely was the only time I've seen him shut someone right off. He cut an armbar through a defenseive lapse from black belt Ryan Janes, but how does Piechota make that kind of mistake?

Piechota and Meerschaert goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)
level 2
10 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

I continue to be confused by your posts. I assume they have nothing to do with betting as you, for example, list "picks" that you are 60% confident about, while the odds imply a 80% win probability.

If you're just trying to pick a winner (and you're picking and choosing, not listing every fight) your W/L record is absolutely abysmal. Your "detailed spreadsheet" is a list of W/L...

level 3

That's okay, you don't have to follow them!

level 3

Because dont you know you can inflate your record if you dont include units won or lost? If you just do a straight up pickem and then beg for tips you dont even have to bet money. This isnt r/mmapredictions where these sorts of posts belong. I would love to see some actual records of this person's predictions because this shit is unesesarily long and means nothing when your "80 percent confidence" pick or whatever is a bunch of -350 favorites.

level 4

LOL, why should I bet the way you want me to? I wouldn't be sharing picks or betting MMA if I didn't make money with it.

level 5
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

You're 4-9 and the main card just started. Clearly you dont know much about betting. But keep doing what you're doing. I faded all your picks and am currently up $634 bucks so far.

You cant be making much money and I think that's why you dont I clued accurate records tbh

level 6
-1 points · 1 month ago

Actually was a very good card for me! 10-5 and hit all 5 high confidence picks! 😄😄😄

Thanks for all your positive energy. You know the most about betting, that's why you have the best record and deepest statistical analysis.

level 7

See you pick and choose what counts yet you post a bunch of hard to read nonsense. Post the plays you actually take and keep track of your roi and units won and lost otherwise your record is worthless

Most of your posted plays lost.

level 8
-1 points · 1 month ago

See you pick and choose what counts yet you post a bunch of hard to read nonsense.

Yup! That's a big part of betting, picking and choosing what you want to bet!

Post the plays you actually take and keep track of your roi and units won and lost otherwise your record is worthless

Oh, definitely will keep track of all of that for you! Least I could do, I owe you so much! 😅😅😅

level 9
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

You keep replying with smartass comments which is cool, you're on a bad run...I get the defensive attitude. What I'm saying is you're posting ALL these plays but you're not even playing them all. You're costing people who dont know better a lot of money and should feel shitty about that. Keep doing what you do I suppose though. But just know it looks shady and is a shitty thing to do costing people money with plays you post but dont count for whatever reason.

You went 11-13 and most of your picks were below -EV so you're not making money. I find it hard to believe you magically took 10 of your 11 wins but only half your losers...then why even post the losers?

level 4

I've made a ton of money parlaying this dudes 80%+ confidence picks so.........

level 5

You didnt these two cards lmao

level 6

I got killed not even tailing this fella last weekend. Not every main card has an underdog sweep

level 7

Never said they do. So following this chick doesnt work.

level 1
[deleted]
4 points · 1 month ago

Bet the farm on Cormier tomorrow night, boys.

level 1

Reddit Record 0-0

UFC 226- First time watching tape and trying to handicap these fights, for researching purposes I have watched the last 3 fights of each fighter (if on fight pass) I am handicapping. Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

· Drakkar Klose (+150) vs Lando Vannata -175 2 Units

o Drakkar Klose is consistently ordinary, only fight where he was truly pressed (Teymur) he got frustrated. In each fight I have watched of his, he tries to invite action by taunting and keep his hands down, and has said he will not let his next loss go to the cards, I see this favoring the much better striker in Vannata.

o Lando is a fairly high level striker, with one strike knockout power. He nearly knocked out Tony Ferguson on short notice. He will be able to out strike and out work Klose on the feet and keep the fight standing. Lando’s only recent loss against Teymur and a draw due to an illegal knee with Bobby green have slowed down his momentum but I see him easily dispatching Klose in this fight.

· Gilbert Burns (+105) vs Dan Hooker (-125)- Fight ends in round 1-2 +100 1 Unit

o This is a tough fight to call, Gilbert Burns is coming off two big knockout wins which speak to his dedication to improving his striking. He is a highly accomplished BJJ artist and has good ground control.

o Dan Hooker has shown a great ability to time highlight reel knockouts via knees and in a fight with Diakese where he was tested he was hit a nice guillotine for the win. He is the longer, more rangey fighter and should be able to control the distance of Burns with his striking skills.

o Ends in rounds 1-2 is my play for this as I think Burns will press for a knockout, and burns counter punching will result in a finish.

· Max Griffin (+150) vs Curtis Millender (-170)- Fight Won’t Go Distance (+100) 1 Unit.

o The tape I have watched on Griffin is Fun, he is willing to stand a trade with anyone and he has a chin that has been tested regularly. Recently he picked apart an over hyped Mike Perry (more on that Later), and his fight with dos santos was a war. I expect him to stand up an trade with a bigger Milender, who recently knocked out a fading Thiago Alves. I expect these guys to trade and the fight to end before the final bell. I also Like Max Griffin to win the fight if you are feeling like taking a live dog, but either guy could win via KO here.

· Rob Font (+160) vs Raphael Assuncao (-180) (By Decision -110) 1 Unit

o Font is fun to watch, but fairly one-dimensional he is a stand up striker and stays within his game quite a bit, his recent knockout of Almeida was impressive and I think he will have to knock out RA to win this fight. However I think Assuncao’s experience, combined with the fact he’s only been knocked out once, outpoints his way to a fairly victory over Font.

· Mike Perry (+140) vs Paul Felder (-160) 3 Units

o Does Mike Perry have potential? Sure, I suppose, but I think he is more bark than bite. He has a propensity to get hit and stand in the pocket and take much more damage than he can give out. Max Griffin who is a decent striker absolutely picked him apart. I see Felder who is coming off 3 KO victories beating up Platinum Mike.

· Uriah Hall (+315) vs Paulo Costa (-430), Round 2 Begins (-120) 3 units

o Costa is definitely a physical freak, he is a dangerous striker and I understand the reasoning behind the line here, however beyond a fading Johny Hendricks, we have yet to see Paulo Costa against a top talent. Costa is a pressure fighter and I do expect this to cause some issues for Hall, but also allow Hall to counter punch effectively. Hall’s experience against top fighters (Mousasi, Weidman, Whittaker, Brunson) at the very least get him out of round 1, if not outright beating Costa.

· Khalil Rountree (+120) vs Gokhan Saki (-140) Ends in Round 1 (-125) 1 Unit

o Not a ton of tape on Saki for MMA given the “Turkish Tyson’s” decorated Kickboxing Career, his first fight showed some rust and cardio issues but he is a proven striker with 1 strike KO power. Khalil Rountree is more well-rounded as a an MMA artist but he is weak on the ground..I see both men keeping this standing and going for an early finish.

· Daniel Cormier (+200) 1 Unit vs Stipe Miocic (-240), DC by Decision +350 1 Unit.

o Such a great matchup, on paper this is an uphill battle for Cormier, Stipe makes his money inside on short powerful punches and DC loves to hang out inside given his reach and style. That being said, DC is an elite wrestler with incredible cardio, and a chin that is battle tested. If DC can extend the fight past round 3 I think he wins, I see this as more of a pick em than how its set, I can’t deny the value for DC, so I am picking DC, and DC by decision

If I have time I will properly handicap the following but haven't been able to watch as much tape on these as I want to but below are my picks:

· Anthony Pettis (+140) 1 Unit vs Michael Chiesa (-160)

Based on quality of opponents.

· Derrrick Lewis (+285) vs Francis Ngannou (-370), Round 2 Starts -120 1 Unit

Fading the public perception that this will be an early finish...just gut here.

level 2

*i am changing my pettis bet to Chiesa 2 units. Think Chiesa will be too much for pettis.

level 3

I ended up cashing out the same bet on Pettis.... Spewing.

level 4

I should have stuck with my gut. The weight not being hit got me to swing to Chiesa. Huge win for pettis. Happy for him.

level 2
4 points · 1 month ago

Yeah. I think Ngannou's gonna be a bit gunshy after the Miocic fight. This could end up being a whole lot of nothing for a while, especially since they're both counter-fighters first.

I got Millender/Griffin to end by KO @ +150 earlier in the week, I think it's about +140 now if you can find the line somewhere.

level 3

here I was thinking nobody saw that shit show of a fight coming....well done m8

level 4

Tbh my prediction was more 'Ngannou and Lewis stare at eachother for 8 mins and then somebody gets KO'd in the first real exchange'. Not 'Nothing happens'.

level 1

Reddit MMA record 4-5-0 / +1 units
MMA parley record 1-1 / + 8.5 units
Saki (-130) 2u
Lando (-165) 4u
Font (+145) 1u
Pettis (+130) 1u
Burns/Millender/Lando/Costa/Ngannou (+753) 1u

Really wanted to smash Max by decision and honestly just see the fight. What a bummer.

level 1

Anyone know if there will be a thread for the fight night happening today? Or does anyone have plays for it? I like Tavares, but that's probably just my hawaii bias.

level 3

What time does that start?

Edit: I see the first fight around 11pm. What is the best way to watch it? Will it be streaming on /r/mmastreams

level 1
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Anyone else putting money down on Foxy Roxy?

level 1
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

2018 Reddit Record: 3-2

Picks:

Cormier +220: While Stipe is probably going to pull this out, the value here is just too good. I see this as a PK fight where the outcoe will be determined by whether Stipe can finish DC in the first two rounds. If it gets into the championship rounds it's hard to see DC's elite wrestling not winning the day and ending with a new champ by UD.

Francis by First Round KO +135: After the beating Francis took against Stipe I think opinion on his ability has trended way too far in the other direction. This is a guy who has finished guys like Blaydes, Arlovski, and Overeem; he's still one of the best heavyweights in the business. On top of that Lewis loves to go to the middle of the octagon and trade and there's no one in the sport who can survive a war trading bombs with Ngannou. If Lewis could wrestle at all this would scare me, but for this price it's har not to go all in on an early Francis KO.

Saki -145: I'm heavy on this. Much has been made about Saki's lack of cardio against da Silva in his first UFC fight. Yet that was the first time Saki had fought in two and half years. ON top of that, Rountree's stamina is even worse than Saki's. The other huge weakness in Saki's game is his wrestling. But again, Rountree has no real wrestling ability. So what do we have? A fight where two guys are going to look to exchange on the feet. Saki is a world class kickboxer while Rountree is an at best average striker with incredible power. While it's possible to see catching Saki with a huge shot, anything short of that and he's getting dominated. My money is on the world class striker who has been doing it for over a decade.

Mike Perry +125: Perry's star has soured in a lot of people's eyes following the beating he took against Max Griffin. That's fair given how poor his gameplan was, but people forget that before that he fought Santiago Ponzinibbio, one of the best counter strikers in the world, nearly dead even for 2.5 rounds. After the Griffin fight Perry ditched his girlfriend/trainer and went to a real gym (Jackson Wink) where he's been training ever since. While too much is often made about changing gyms, the difference between having your girlfriend train you and a world class establishment like Jackson can't be overrstated. As far as fight reasons go, i've seen a lot of steam on Felder with the two basic lines of thinking being: 1) he's a counter puncher and Perry can't beat counter punchers AND 2) Felder doesn't get KO'd. First, while Felder does like to counter punch, he also likes to trade leather and has had a nasty habit of dropping his hands mid exchange and leaving himself wide open for a bomb. Second, while he's only been knocked out once, he's a natural 155er. The level of power the average 155er hits with is not close to what Perry hits with at 170. In the same vein, Felder is probably going to be around 180 on fight day while Perry will be closer to 195, that's a massive weight difference. Third, people are acting like Felder is some kind of star when the guy isn't even ranked. He's a fun fighter but he has a pretty low fight IQ and isn't close to the level of a Ponzinibbio. In my mind Perry at better than even odds is the best value on the entire card

Gilbert Burns PK: This is an interesting matchup. Burns has the far superior ground and submission game while Hooker is much better on the feet. That said, Burns' standup is competent enough that he should be able to use it to effectively close the distance and get this fight to the ground. My one concern is Burns has has a tendency to fall in love with his standup and look to win fights there. If that happens Hooker could easily put him to sleep. If Burns fights a smart fight this should be all him, and i'm willing to take the risk he does the right thing at even money.

level 2

Second, while he's only been knocked out once, he's a natural 155er. The level of power the average 155er hits with is not close to what Perry hits with at 170. In the same vein, Felder is probably going to be around 180 on fight day while Perry will be closer to 195, that's a massive weight difference.

Paul Felder walks around at 190 pounds and drops a lot of weight on the way to making 155. Perry fought Alex Reyes and said afterwards said he came into the fight weighing "no more than 176 pounds".

level 2

Good looks on mentioning him ditching his girlfriend for a real trainer. She was nauseating and i do think it’s probably a positive change for him i still think fielder wins. Great write up. Also agree on the burns breakdown. I’ll be posting my picks tomorrow.

level 3

Thanks! And absolutely, level of training partners + coaching for a mid 20's fighter is invaluable. Yea i mean i wouldn't be shocked if Felder wins, i just feel like as overrated as perry was prior to the Ponzinibbio fight he's swung the other way to being a bit underrated. Best of Luck.

level 1
-1 points · 1 month ago

Millender over griffen Font over assuncao Chiesa over pettis M bravo over A Carceres Stipe/cormier draw +6000 Perry +130 over Felder

level 1
2 points · 1 month ago

Was leaning Ortega but sadly not an option? Not sure where to throw money on. Suggestions?

level 2

I like Felder and Vannata so far.

level 3

I'll keep an eye out thanks

level 1
3 points · 1 month ago

Max out of 226 - Bets void there

level 2
4 points · 1 month ago

Happy cake day!

level 1
redditor for 22 days1 point · 1 month ago

Felder / Hooker / Chiesa / Holloway

level 2

love Felder, perry is criminally overrated, which means he will prob win since i am taking Felder. Sorry in advance.

level 3
redditor for 22 days2 points · 1 month ago

Hahahaha no worries. Holloway is out of the card noooooo

level 1

Ortega has had trouble standing up against Maynard, moicano, even Guida rocked him early. In most of his fights sans the Edgar fight he was bailed out by fighters making mistakes and getting caught. I simply do not see Holloway making those mistakes. Ortega did beat up Edgar but his size advantage was massive in that fight. I don’t think Holloway will put himself into dangerous positions and his striking will pick apart Ortega. Just my 2 cents.

level 2

Ortega actually won the striking battles in all his fights when you think about it. Even in the Moicano fight where he lost the second round (narrowly), he actually won the first and was winning the third. Ortega actually has pretty good striking. It's very diverse and he puts pressure on more and more as the fight progresses.

level 3

I definitely agree with you in regards to the pressure he applies, and he could def Strike with those guys but my point is that those guys were able to do damage. I view Holloway as a world class striker and if lesser strikers can get to Ortega i think Holloway will at ease. That being said, Ortega could also get the fight to the ground and submit max.

level 1

I don’t know whether to go large on Miocic outright now or closer to fight night? Will betting lines become more favourable?

level 2

If you're leaning Miocic I'd wait till Saturday. There's been a lot of sharp action (source: betmma.tips) on DC, and I have to imagine the sharps are going to start flooding the books on him between now and fight night. If you wait the right amount of time it's possible you could get Stipe in the -180 range.

level 3

Cheers for the heads up bro, yeah my thinking is Stipe outright, hopefully more people will start dumping on DC to change the betting lines which should give a larger return.

level 2

Yes, that +200 money will be rolling in late.

level 2

Money does seem to be coming in on DC. Personally prefer the Miocic KO prop, too. Don't trust DC's durability if he's getting hit enough to lose a dec.

level 3

DC's durability? Why because he got head kicked by arguably the greatest MMA fighter of all time who tested positive for steroids?

level 4

Hahaha i love this. Everyone keeps talking about his chin when the dude has literally been KO'd once and on a kick that would have floored a sasquatch.

level 5

Exactly. The punch that rumble landed on him would have knocked out anybody, DC popped up pretty quick.

level 4

DC is moving up weight so his cardio/general durability may take a hit. You can’t make that many pounds of muscle in several months. It’s going to be quite a bit of fat. As such, if Miocic keeps his game plan of controlling the distance, and box, he should be able to win.

level 5

Not sure I'd cout on this. You have to keep in mind he's probably cutting close to 30 pounds to make 205 in most of his fights. Now he doesn't need to cut, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily be in worse shape. If anything it means he'll be fighting at close to what he spars at in camp while in fight shape.

level 6

Good point but factor in his age, and the fact Miocic is pretty much 240 lbs of muscle (mostly), it will be interesting to see if DC can take it at HW once more.

level 5

I think stipe wins for sure but Cormier is a good live dog

level 4
2 points · 1 month ago

He's been badly hurt in 5 of his last 6 fights. He's toughed through it, but it doesn't take much to go from toughing through it to being late-career Dan Henderson.

level 5

This is why I think the hedge of DC/FDNGTD is good. I think whoever wins is going to win easy so its either Stipe cracking him or DC wrestlefucking him for a stoppage.

level 6
2 points · 1 month ago

Same. Kinda expecting either Stipe KO1/2 or DC via dec

level 1
20 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

So I collected the YouTubers' and some redditors' predictions here in a table, including my own pick.

level 3
3 points · 1 month ago

Will be updating soon. I'm still waiting for some big redditors on this subreddit. Would love to add yours!

level 2

Thanks for including me bro

level 2

Great to be included.

Elaboration on picks. Underlined is not necessarily my pick to win the fight, but the value bet based on the moneyline.

level 1
2 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Official UFC Reddit Record: 19-9 (+14.87 units)

Last Bet Look Back - Tyson Pedro: Loss

The win was there for Tyson Pedro's taking, but his inexperience I feel costed him. After hurting OSP, he kept attempting takedowns and OSP's strength kept him upright. After a short tussel, OSP lands on top and puts Pedro in the worst case scenario to end the fight. Will be interesting to see who Pedro fights next.

~ Brian Ortega vs Max Holloway ~

First off, this entire card is amazing! Been looking forward to this one since the official announcement... Great night for UFC fans. This fight puts two young lions against each other in one outstanding MMA bout. When I started breaking this fight down, I rewatched their last 3 fights each. To me, a few things stuck out and started pulling me towards betting the over/under. One thing you see is Ortega's evolution from ground game specialist to well rounded fighter. T-City is so relaxed in the cage and completely comfortable standing toe to toe. But, stylistically I could see a slow paced well thought out strategy from both sides. Max won't want to overly pressure Ortega, as he could get his alligator grip on him and that'd be night-night. Max will seek peppering Ortega from the outside where he's more superior and looking to bring it into deep water. Ortega, doesn't pressure fight and let's the fight come to him. I see a lot of standing in this fight as both look to stay outta harm. Max hasn't faced a pure ground specialist like this, which should make him slightly timid at times. I feel it'll lead to a lot of stalemates and a deeper round fight. I'm going with the over 3.5 rounds.

~ Ortega/Holloway: OVER 3.5 rounds - 2 Units (-120)

Enjoy the fights everyone! Going to be partying it up all day and night with friends at my house. Looking forward to a great card!

My full UFC 226 Prediction Show Podcast on Fight Club TV: https://youtu.be/mPkn_Yzm4as

Fade, Follow or Post Hate. All ALWAYS appreciated.

level 2

Ughhhh that Pedro fight killed me. I love Pedro but honestly he needs to be fighting lower card guys till he learns a bit more.

level 3

Yea, I agree. He is such a raw talent and needs to move up slowly up the ranks. OSP's experience truly showed. When OSP was in trouble, he stayed relaxed. When Pedro had OSP hurt he got excited and focused on the takedowns, he should have just stayed striking. Oh well.

level 2
2 points · 1 month ago

Welp. Under hit on Holloway/Ortega, I guess

level 3

Lol! I'm so disappointed that fight isn't happening.

level 2
2 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Yeah. I feel like Holloway's gonna come out with the gameplan he used against Stephens. Lots of outside distance striking. Might cost him in a decision, though.

Bad luck on Pedro. I was big on OSP + OSP Sub, but I feel like it was -EV. I'd give OSP like +200 odds in an immediate rematch. Just because a dog wins, doesn't mean it was the right play.

level 3

Yea, I see Ortega/Holloway a 5 round chess match. Can't see either putting the other away early. Will be fascinating how the fight all plays out...

Yes I agree, any bet I lose I go back and revisit my thought process prior to the fight. See if there's something I overlooked. Only thing I feel I overlooked was OSP's strength, but Pedro should have stuck working him from the outside and if an opening to the ground presented itself, then take it. He forced it on a hurt OSP. Much respect to OSP staying relaxed and subbing a ground specialist.

level 4

Pedro's really not a ground specialist. Essentially all of his earlier submissions were club-and-subs over outmatched Australian regional bums. I was there live for 2 of them. The sub on Safarov was the same sort of ugly strength-sub that OSP hit on Pedro, and Rountree is essentially a bigger version of Melvin Guillard.

I did literally only bet on OSP sub since I was half-expecting a random Von Flue choke. The moment Pedro locked that standing guillotine I thought he was gonna jump it, fuck it up and get flue'd.

I think Holloway should win by a major margin and that Ortega shouldn't be in there, but I am expecting Holloway to play it fairly passively due to Ortega's obvious ability to randomly dive on subs.

level 5

Well I mean Pedro is a Brazilian and Japanese Jujitsu black belt, maybe saying specialist is a little strong. lol I really love Pedro's skillset, I think he's very well rounded, but his inexperience killed him.

Yea, I'm completely onboard with how you're seeing the Max/Ortega fight. I feel both fights will be so close, I focused on the over/unders in both main fights. What's your opinion on Ngannou vs Lewis? I actually like hearing people's opinions on that fight because some think Ngannou will crush Lewis and some think Lewis will crush Ngannou. Such a great card. One of my other bets is Felder to beat Perry, just think he'll be much more sharp and polished compared to Perry's sloppy combinations... That's one of my other small bets I discuss on my podcast.

level 6

Lewis is definitely the value side. I got his KO prop at +700, and I'd cap Ngannou at like -150/-200 or so at fair value. Both guys are gonna swing.

Perry-Felder might be difficult for Felder to come in with an outfighting gameplan on just 8 days notice.

level 7

Felder is waaay more polished as a fighter and his Muay Thai should confuse Perry and his very basic game plan of just charging forward and punching. That strategy works only on lower level opponents. Felder IMO is more well rounded and should be able to out point Perry in a decision victory. I'm pretty pissed off that Max and Ortega aren't fighting now... Sucks. That was the one fight I hoped stayed together. Oh well...

level 1

!remindme 5 days

level 2

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level 1

Paging goat u/borrabnu

Have any leans for ufc 226? Cheers!

level 2
redditor for 2 months3 points · 1 month ago

Be patient man. He always post but its closer to game time so just wait for it

level 3

I know she usually posts couple hours to 30 minutes before the start, but last event she gave early leans and it was great info to catch some better lines

level 3
9 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

u/borrabnu she! :D

level 4

Picks are picks, whether its dicks or chicks... always love u/borrabnu's UFC wisdom

Maybe [insert gender pronoun here] is waiting for the weigh in... After reading the news the past couple days, I'm waiting for the weigh in

level 5
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

I’m just going by borrabnu correcting me on calling her a him and ya I usually don’t check if she’s posted til about 20 minutes before the fight

level 1
5 points · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

Saki -170 or better. Rountree has zero takedowns in his ufc career and should be looking to knock Saki out. It's a matchup the ufc hand picked for Saki to get a win. Rountree has power but gasses quick and that's when his punches loop and Saki should take advantage.

Hall +270 or better. Now if I had to pick who wins I'd say Costa but I'm definitely not sure. It's very close imo and this value is too big to pass up. Costa's ufc opponents are a combined 2-10 at middleweight. There was a recent Brazilian name Thomas Almeida who came into the ufc around 18-0 before going on a 3 fight losing streak when he started to faced ranked opponents. Jotko is another guy who had an awesome record coming in who now is on a 3 fight skid including a ko loss to Hall. Hall also has a 7 inch reach advantage and can counter strike well to the agressive Costa.

Cormier +160 or better. DC and Stipe are both world class fighters. Stipe is a great wrestler but not the olympic level DC is and he has never faced that. DC has 2 losses in his career both to an undefeated Jon Jones who was on the juice. Stipe also has 2. One to a mid tier fighter named Stefan Struve and the other to a heavyweight legend JDS who Stipe ko'd in the rematch. Stipe has brutal KO power but if DC can avoid Stipe at full energy trying to knock his head off then his chances should improve as the fight goes on. DC should have a cardio advantage and it'll be determined that night who wins the clinch exchanges and stand up. DC has held his own on the feet with world class strikers such as Gustaffson, Anthony Johnson, and Jones to an extent. Stipe has more tools to finish the fight but I believe DC will show he's the better overall fighter if he can take this far enough that Stipe gets tired and DC can more easily apply his dominante wrestling.

Also like Felder -165 or better Lewis +210 or better.

level 1

I'm going to Vegas and I'll be betting on these fights. The amount bet will be determined on how well I do on friday. If I come out on top I'll add to my UFC 226 bets, but I'm putting at least 100 on Cormier and Felder as those are my favorite bets for the odds.

Stylebender (3rd favorite bet also thinking ITD too) Piet hota/Pena parlay Barb Honchack Millender Felder Holloway DC Black Beast (his odds are getting ridiculous now. I love this one too)

After checking again Black Beast at +305 is just insane. A parlay with him and DC pays +1205. I might have to throw 25 on that as well.

level 2

Stylebender ITD's probably not a great play. He's only really demonstrated power in his knees, and his KO over Wilkinson just looked like Wilkinson got tired and swarmed. +100 is a bit silly, but I wouldn't mind Israel dec @ +615 despite thinking Tavares is the value side on the ML.

Tavares has good cardio, and has only been put out by massive single-shot punch counters.

level 3

Yeah I didnt expect his ITD to be so low when I capped it. Figured it would be around +200, but I guess since Brad has been stopped twice its juiced.

level 2

I’ll be in Vegas as well! BOL

level 3

Will also be there.

SWANG N BANG

level 4

LETS GO

Vegas meet up?

level 5

Ill be there too!

level 1

Font .5u +145

Roundtree .2u +150

Chiesa 1u - 155

Millender 2.25u - 170

Cormier/stipe draw .2u +6000 (why not)

level 2
1 point · 1 month ago · edited 1 month ago

.25 bravo over caceres

level 1

I have two single bets, 2 Units each.

Cormier - I have no idea why he is the dog in this fight, the guy only has losses against Jon Jones (the best fighter of all time). Cormier is one of the best to ever do it. Stipe has never fought an elite guy in their prime. Cormier will ragdoll stipe.

Ortega - More of a fan bet because i love his Jits but dont ever count this kid out for a second.

level 2

If this was simply 5 years ago, I would agree that Cormier could ragdoll Stipe.

With Cain being perpetually injured, I don't know if Cormier is able to reach his peak anymore.

That said, I'm still on DC, the odds are disrespectful.

level 2
redditor for 2 months6 points · 1 month ago

Cormier will ragdoll stipe.

lol

level 2

DC is almost 40, he's not in his prime.

level 3

Ok. So watch Cormier win and then come back to this thread and apologize

level 4
redditor for 22 days6 points · 1 month ago

And then watch this account be deleted after

level 5

Told u

level 6
redditor for 22 days1 point · 1 month ago

What a fight. Great call on that.

level 7

Not about "bigger or stronger" all the time. Technique trumps strength every time.

Cormier's fight IQ is higher.

level 5

Will not delete an account thats 3 years old for ur cuck ass. Watch Stipe loose.

level 6
redditor for 22 days2 points · 1 month ago

Doesnt matter to me! I like both champions lol

level 5

Can't wait

level 4
redditor for 2 months2 points · 1 month ago

Ok. So watch cormier lose to the bigger, taller and longer (reach) fighter and then come back to this thread and apologize.

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