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[–]GelatiSTA 7 points8 points  (11 children)

We got completely obliterated for -23.2 units yesterday 9 of which was a live bet that turned pretty badly on us but we have what looks like an easy one tomorrow morning.

In the blog post I discuss and break down what went wrong yesterday and what was just unlucky as well as analyze the LCK vs LMS Blind Relay match tomorrow.

No time to post stats from phone but I'm going with the following selections for tomorrow:

LCK @ LMS - 7 units (max bet) - Handicapped: LCK -2.5 @ -120

LCK @ LMS - 5 units - PROP: Exact LCK 3-0 @ -161 (this was the initial offering, once I saw actual handicapped line was 41 points better we went heavy on that)

LCK @ LMS - 1 unit - PROP: Exact LCK 3-1 @ +223

I know Flash Wolves have looked good but the truth is Korea have punted badly in every game against them. For whatever reason they tilt once in awhile against them. Flash Wolves are something like 9-9 all time vs Korea at international competitions. People call them the "Korea Slayers" but I would handicapped a SKT -120/FW +100 or something along those lines and that's our WORST case scenario here.

See blog post for further breakdown and BOL all!

[–]ontemu 2 points3 points  (5 children)

LCK 3-0 @-161 seems like such a weird/awful bet. I mean, you could get ANY of the Korean teams ALONE at better than -161 versus Flash Wolves. None of the three teams would have been a bigger favourite against FW (SKT closed at around +150). You're basically hoping for the best possible match up (KT who would have been the slight favourites), and then, to add to that, you're negative freerolling the two other LMS teams.

[–]lookingintothings1redditor for 17 days 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"LCK 3-0 @-161 seems like such a weird/awful bet" seems?

I mean, you could get ANY of the Korean teams ALONE at better than -161 versus Flash Wolves."

could you though?

[–]GelatiSTA 0 points1 point  (3 children)

It was a bad line but it was also the only offering initially. Even then I still liked it for 5 units. I had more confidence in SKt than you did. Whenever I talk about lines and such I don't go by what the books post I go by how I'd handicap things when discussing line value because I'm co doesn't enough in my abilities to honestly think I'd do it better. Call that arrogant if you like but it's how I operate. This isn't traditional sports and they haven't "solved" or have insider information.

[–]lookingintothings1redditor for 17 days 0 points1 point  (2 children)

theres no way that line was good, and if you Think it might have been it would be a good reason to have less confidence in yourself.

[–]GelatiSTA 1 point2 points  (1 child)

TL:dr - I rarely give a shit about lines and form my own opinions because I don't trust the line makers (computers) knownwhat they're doing.

[–]lookingintothings1redditor for 17 days 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yea i saw that, and theres no proffessional sportsbettor who would Believe that on a line like that. if you had that kind of insight as to get those edges you would make tens of millions per year to be conservative

[–]PhAnToM444 1 point2 points  (3 children)

I just commented a second ago and am a dumbass because I misunderstood the Rift Rivals format...

That -120 is actually insane value. Bovada has it at -145 which I am going to nope out of though.

[–]ontemu 1 point2 points  (2 children)

-120 implies 54.5% win probability, -145 implies 59% win probability. How is the former insane value, if you "nope out of" -145?

[–]lookingintothings1redditor for 17 days 0 points1 point  (0 children)

because an additional 4.5% roi over the course of a 3 hour event is insane? some fund managers would kill for an additional percent over the course of a year

[–]PhAnToM444 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because long term the difference of 4.5% win probability is absolutely huge. I thought -120 was a great play but at -145 all the value was gone and it was no edge at best.