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So bovada has Bot TI. Anyone been following this and know how to abuse these bets?
My picks for Today :
LMS : 0-2 -1,5u
Team Afro vs MAD
Team Afro ML @7 0,5u L
Team Afro to win 1 map @ 2,75 1u L
LPL: 1-0 + 1,71u
RNG vs EG
RNG ML @ 1,57 3u W
Heroes of the Storm:
Both favorites win easily. Ballistix easy 3-0. Miracle -1.5 opened -450 and is like -700 now.
I thought DIG -2.5 @ plus odds was worth a shot, also the -1.5 @ -300
I still haven't watched Liquid to see why they lost to Zealots today, which cost me a lot of parlays x_x Need to do this before betting on or against Method.
At even money, I give Octalysis the edge. Bet at your own risk.
At -300 TS vs +213 Team Freedom, I'm waiting for spreads before betting on freedom.
good picks, so many stomps in this game
You still betting on freedom?
I ended up taking TS ML and Freedom spread (+120ish, lost the spread bet) because it opened at only -255 @ 5dimes
Actually, I like END ML (+106) and TS -1.5 (-140) after considering home server. Don't like either a lot, but both are part of my plays. The server advantage is kinda huge and probably isn't being factored in by whoever is making these lines.
What is home server and server advantage?
They decide whether they play on US east vs us west? How do you know which server benefits which team?
West vs. Central. Team on the left is home. Pretty big ping difference for some teams (especially TS vs. central teams).
Gotta look up their twitter locations to know.
TS is like right on west server.
END is west.
SIM is west I think.
TF is central.
OCT is central.
HHE is central.
Very interesting and important to know, thanks.
Is it correct to assume none of the EU and NA teams live together in a team house?
TS lives together I believe, maybe with the exception of their sub. I don't know much about EU. I would think they have their own server advantages though.
KR -1.5 is nice. Missed out on BLX -1.5 before they fixed line (it was like -714 lol).
Not a fan of the DIG plays, although I'll admit 3-2 would be surprising. I expect MET to 3-0 ZEA.
OCT should be safe. TS vs. TF line looks to be on point. NA gonna NA tho.
No time for a blog post tonight but I'm gonna ride the KT Rollercoaster tomorrow morning.
YEAR TO DATE STATS:
Total Season Record: 507 - 432 (53.99%) (Live bets EXCLUDED)
TOTAL SEASON RECORD (ALL BETS): 547 - 457 (54.482%)
LCK Record: 176 - 137 (56.23%)
LPL Record: 124 - 119 (51.029%)
LMS Record: 23 - 21 (52.28%)
TCL Record: 21 - 12 (63.64%)
EU LCS Record: 82 - 59 (58.156%)
NA LCS Record: 88 - 73 (54.658%)
LCL Record: 0 - 5 (0%)
Mid Season Invitational Record: 14 - 7 (66.66%)
Rift Rivals 2018: 19 - 24 (44.186%)
5+ unit wagers: 51 - 24 (68%)
6+ unit wagers: 25 - 8 (75.76%)
YPW (Yield per Wager): +3.63%
Other stats like Handicapped, Prop bet, and live bet statistics AVAILABLE ON BLOG!!
E-Sports - League of Legends - Sunday July 15th
LOL Champions Korea - Start Time: 4am EST
KT Rolster @ Afreeca Freecs - 6 units - Moneyline: KT Rolster -127 WIN
KT Rolster @ Afreeca Freecs - 1 unit - Handicapped: KT -1.5 maps @ +229 LOSS
Gen.G @ Hanwha Life eSports - 4 units - Moneyline: Gen.G -127 WIN
Reasoning for the KT pick is partially that they play up to their competition and have a history of this and because I think they have stronger individual players. The first meeting between these two could have gone either way in game 3 but KT utterly smashed Afreeca in 23 minutes in game 2 and I feel like today could end up more like that. KT could also tie for 4th with Afreeca with a 2-0 for what that's worth. Really this just feels like one of those moments that KT shows up and dumpsters a good team just in time for them to lose to SK Telecom next week.
I'm gonna get some flack for it but I honestly think Gen.G had the right game plan and were executing fine in that series yesterday against Griffin before what could only be explained as an aneurism in the middle of game 3. Would they have won? Ehh hard to tell. I thought yes, a lot of Twitter/Reddit followers and I had some really good discussion on it. Regardless I thought Gen.G had the right plan and looked fine other than the game ending plays. It's really easy to forget how good they looked because of those couple horrific plays. I'm going to roll the dice here. Hanwha looked shaky at times against SKT who I feel is a similar, if not weaker team so far this season. (not htat huge a gap) Call it a hunch but I think Gen.G are going to want to get right after that embarassing way to lose to Griffin when they had it within reach.
LOL Pro League (China) - Start Time: 2am EST
Royal Never Give Up @ EDward Gaming - 5 units - Moneyline: EDG +142 LOSS
Royal Never Give Up @ EDward Gaming - 0.5 unit - PROP: Exact EDG 2-1 @ +305 LOSS
JD Gaming @ Team WE - 2 units - PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 LOSS
JD Gaming @ Team WE - 2 units - PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 LOSS
I know RNG smashed OMG with Zztai playing mid and Xiaohu swapped to ADC to replace Uzi. A few things though. Firstly we don't know if that's going to be the setup moving forward or if they'll experiment with more roster iterations. Secondly this is NOT the same team without Uzi. They're probably still one of China's best but they're not the same power level. Thirdly OMG are not good and RNG almost lost that first game before moving on to smash them in game two. Finally EDG are actually a good team, one of handful of elite squads in a competitive LPL this season. I think EDG can beat RNG even with Uzi. Maybe 4-5 games out of 10. These teams are evenly matched when at full strength. I LOVE the value for EDG here.
JD play fast and loose and Team WE are more of a slow and steady traditional team comp style of team that's going through a lot of roster issues. I actually don't hate the moneyline value on WE as a dog as they looked decent against two good teams in RW and EDG in their past two matches but this is still one of the last place teams in the LPL and their playstyle really isn't a good fit for the way the game is played. JD on the other hand are benefitting A LOT from the current metagame and they've enjoyed a lot of success. I like the first two maps to be quick JD victories (likely) or losses. It's just how this team plays.
League Masters Series (Taiwan) - Start Time: 4am EST
(not liking a lot of these, stay tuned that might change, maybe the props on heavy favorites)
North American LCS (NA) - Start Time: 3pm EST
(pending, probably nothing here don't particularly like a lot of the lines and I can't convince myself to take CLG against C9 even though C9 looked kinda terrible tonight)
TOTAL RECORD FOR SUNDAY: (pending)
NET FOR SUNDAY: (pending)
As always best of luck fam!
Free picks, justification, and articles on my (almost) daily blog
I usually tail you and i agree with most of your bets, but I don't know why did u bet on KT Rolster. Even if they end up winning 2-1, Afreeca @2.20 was clearly huge value. Imho Afreeca were favourites giving the last maches and last season, 50-50 at max. It was such an insane value bet.
That is good line value but they were -101 (1.99) on my book. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking either side here. Afreeca have been legit good. No flukes or anything really. They're an excellent team. Especially at that value I wouldn't blame you for going Afreeca if you believe they're 50/50 or better.
I know it's a meme but why did I take KT? That's exactly why I took KT. This team always over performs against good teams and under performs against bad teams. They're the Pittsburgh Steelers of League of Legends. Ride the KT rollercoaster my friend.
Just curious, but how can you say that Afreeca +120 is "good value", yet play KT @-127?
Because I felt strongly enough that KT would win. +120 was good value IF you believe this was closer to 50/50 or Afreeca favored. A lot of people favored Afreeca to win this match and in most places they were closer to +-100 so +120 was a good line if you liked them to win anyway. I just didn't like them to win.
hope Gen G dont throw
they will most probably
For JD Gaming @ Team WE, Nitro's lines are on 32 and they don't offer 33, what do you think about that? 1 min difference is quite drastic and I think I would end up losing just because of the 1 min difference
Yea I'd prolly still go with it but bump down to a single unit instead of 2. That's just me though. I thought 33 was high for how these two teams match up.
Love the write ups! Thanks!
Thanks! I normally do more on the blog but I'm out atm
Do your units directly reflect confidence? So KT would be the most confident tomorrow?
So no it's not directly based on confidence entirely. Sometimes you need To go heavier when a gift Horse looks you in the mouth with a juicy line but this one I just feel confident about. Kinda surprised HLE isn't favored based on their recent performance and how books skew a lot toward that.
Why dont you just use Kelly?
most of my data and sheets are already in my current format and don't feel like converting to % stakes.
the limits on my book are actually a factor for me at this point
Mostly just ease of use/laziness on my end.
Gotcha, that makes sense, units being configured off confidence and the lines themselves. Thanks and good luck!
For the most part. But there are times where I'll move up or down depending on the line. If I'm confident and I like the odds it'll usually look abnormally large. Tomorrow for KT I'm just very confident. It's not the most lopsided match in the slate but it is the match I like the most as a bettor if that makes sense.
BLX -1.5 vs. SN. Max betting at -714.
MRC ML vs. FLZ. Max betting at -535.
DIG should beat TL but it could be close. Waiting for lines on EU/NA.
MET -1.5 vs. ZEA should win easily.
TS vs. TF may be close. Won't be touching that. TS -1.5.
OCT ML will likely be solid vs. END. I actually like END ML at + money.
47-33 (W-L) +3.52u (1.97% ROI)
Streak: 4L total 179u risked
League of Legends / NA LCS / 100T - TSM
*100T first blood @ 1.85 * risk 4u✖️
48-33 (W-L) +7.92u (4.33% ROI)
Streak: 1W total 183u risked
League of Legends / NA LCS / Clutch Gaming - Golden Guardians
*Golden Guardians FB @ 2.10 * risk 4u ✔️
fbs so fifty fifty, misfits(undefeated) got fb'd by VIT last night. Rather ML on clutch than bet on the bottom tier team
I took this one because in summer split, GGS has 67% FB compared to CG 33% FB.
fair enough, ggs destroyed cg lmao
49-33 (W-L) +9.92u (5.30% ROI)
Streak: 2W total 187u risked
League of Legends / NA LCS / Team Liquid - Optic Gaming
Team Liquid first dragon @ 1.50 risk 4u ✔️
50-33 (W-L) +12.92u (6.76% ROI)
Streak: 3W total 191u risked
League of Legends / NA LCS / Cloud9 - Flyquest
Cloud9 FB @ 1.75 risk 4u ✔️
51-33 (W-L) +15.80u (8.10% ROI)
Streak: 4W total 195u risked
League of Legends / LCK / KT Rolster - Afreeca Freecs
KT Rolster ML @ 1.72 risk 4u ✔️
why do you spam threads its annoying cant you sum it all up in 1 comment?
esp. the record being so needlessly long lol legit nobody cares
afs got top stats compared to kt tho
Afreeca’s recent form has been very poor. This is a bet based on feeling.
Afs last game was on griffin, best team in lck, Edward gaming and RNG best teams in LPL, I dont think its too fair to compare afs last matches as they all been vs top tier teams
The CSGO CIS minor futures (to win and to reach the final) still haven't cleared even though the event ended yesterday. Should I wait and maybe the clearance is just delayed or should i try to contact them?
Depends on your book. If you really need the funds so you can bet on something else, go ahead and email them.
Book is bovada. Thanks for the advice!
Bovada can often be slow on futures and props, e-sports or not.
Also, make sure you review them and make sure they pay you properly.
I bet on Liquid to win a future once. I was paid only half of the amount (+600 instead of +1200 or some shit), and I only noticed this because I was scrutinizing my transactions.
I usually don't review every transaction, so the fact that I caught this makes me wonder how many times they've fucked me (or someone else) over.
They paid properly no problem, but if I had never caught it, it would've been a lot of value stolen.
Yeah, ill keep an eye on it. Thanks.
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