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A 98% false positive rate is... pretty great? 1 good lead out of every 50 sounds fantastic compared to many other kinds of evidence gathering.

Do some statistical analysis, put it on GitHub, link your GitHub on your CV.

A lot of people still don't really know what gamergate was really all about.

Personally, I'm neutral on the whole thing. I just like the name, logo, and uptime. I didn't know they had any involvement in gamergate until now but that doesn't really have any barring on whether or not I'll use a service.

Though, I am a little curious on how exactly a GitLab clone played a roll in gamergate.

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Well that's gonna poison my YouTube recommendations

Bottom line: nearly any investment is better than holding FRNs.

That's not true at all. For every Coca-Cola or Microsoft there are 10000 other stocks that went no where or failed and became delisted. It's a rather sneaky trick the exchanges play, because if you've ever analyzed stock price data, it probably won't include delisted stocks, causing you to form a survivorship bias where you think every stock is successful. They're not. Stocks become worthless all the time and the exhanges memory-hole them.

That's not to say abandon the stock market and buy gold. If you understand an industry and have confidence in a particular investment, then yes, it may very likely be a better investment, but in no way is "nearly every investment" better than gold. If that were true, no one would ever invest in gold. It's simply lower risk, but also a lower return.

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12 points · 2 months ago · edited 2 months ago

Actually, if you bought $44 of the S&P500 in 1971 and reinvested the dividends, you'd have $4,840 now. It's robust to survivorship bias. Note that I'm using the S&P500 here because it's much closer to a cap weighting than the DJI.

Hell, if you invested $44 in US treasuries in 1975 and reinvested the coupon you'd have $791, and that's at a much lower volatility than gold.

If you want to argue about survivorship bias in the returns in these examples, do it at the country level - in 1971, would I have known to invested in US equities rather than Mexican?

CC /r/paulej

Eyeballing it doesn't work for more than two variables. Suppose you have two standard normals, X and Y, and their sum Z = X + Y. Then these have perfect collinearity, but a pairwise plot like the above will just show ~70% correlation between X and Z and Y and Z.

The section of this video starting around 0:48 looks like 3d animation to me. Am i wrong? Is it possible they would fake some of this footage?

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Original Poster21 points · 6 months ago

The audio is faked, but the footage is real. The BBC got in trouble a few years back by shooting in a zoo and subsequently became very conservative about faking footage. If they were using CGI the tabloids would have a field day.

I think you're after the disjoint shortest paths problem.

Comment deleted6 months ago

Because it doesn't really make a difference unless it's infectious or toxic.

You should read the 80,000 hours career guide which addresses your question in excruciating detail .

it is moving. look at the espn sign

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It isn't - look at the people in front of the ESPN sign (easier in the source). If the floor were moving by 2ft, they wouldn't be calmly standing there.

It's an illusion, most likely generated by a motion stabilization algorithm that stabilized the wrong thing.

82 points · 9 months ago

This means I can't even say "Hi", or "Have a nice day". Both of which would creep me out in prison.

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Yes. Exactly.

If you pass a woman you don't know on the street, leave them alone.

Nah. Still gonna say hi or give them a smile whether they're a hot girl or an old man or anywhere in between. You can have fun never interacting with anyone because that's the "polite" thing to do, though.

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There is a substantial sub-population of men who get aggressive when people don't engage with their casual conversation. As such, people will feel compelled to engage with your casual conversation even if they don't want to because they don't know if you're one of those men.

If you know this and you engage strangers anyway: you're an asshole. Yes, it's terrible that this means you don't get to do a thing you want to do. But it's decidedly less terrible than forcing all those other people to do a thing they really don't want to do.

Original Poster1 point · 11 months ago

It's not simply a matter of economic statistics. To say poor people in America live like kings compared to other countries tells me you haven't hung around poor people in America. Misery isnt just about per capita income

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Yes, but the cost of fixing misery is overwhelmingly about per capita income.

The cost of averting one disability-adjusted life year in the developed world is about ~$30,000.

The cost of averting one disability-adjusted life year in the developing world is about ~$30.

I'm heard this rhetoric before and it's kinda BS.

"Germs" You mean bacteria? That shit is everywhere and we cannot stop it no matter what.

Most food is made with your hands with a cook breathing over it. Germs. Lot's of em boo hoo.

There's like a billion of em in your mouth at all times.

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20 points · 11 months ago · edited 11 months ago

You're right, there are germs all over the place. You're immune to lots of them and anyway they're generally pretty harmless because, well, they're the kind of germs that're adapted to countertops or dirt or whatever.

The germs that you blow out of your mouth though are the germs which are adapted to the human respiratory system. And now they're on your cake, and in a moment thirty people are going to stuff that cake down the entrance to their own respiratory systems.

For the general 'how long for what grade': depends on the gym, depends on the country, depends how often you go, depends how long your sessions are, depends who you learn from, depends how old you are, depends how fit you are, etc. There are some people at some gyms who'll manage V5 in a few months; there are other people at other gyms that won't manage it ever.

But for this specific question:

The gym I go to goes up to v10/v11 depending on the month. How long does it take to get there?

Years and years.

The most effective option is almost certainly to go on a cheaper holiday than usual and donate the difference to worms/bednets.

Alternatively: go on whatever holiday you want, but pay a predetermined fraction of the cost to worms/bednets as an 'altruism tax'.

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November 9, 2009
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