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Arbitrage opportunity:

MVP 2.0 on Bet365 Jin Air 2.1 on Unibet

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Betting "large" amounts on e-sports is the fastest way to get limited on both of those sites. EV of having an unlimited Bet365/Unibet account is far larger than the few dollars you can arb here.

There's a lot of legitimate points to criticize this dude over, and this isn't one of them. What he says gets the point across, and I really doubt there's anyone that doesn't understand what exactly it is he means when he says it. I haven't looked at a list in forever, because that shit is irrelevant and is just created for poor kids who like to make their own trading cards and sports almanacs, but the last time I saw one, I remember it going:

Champion: person

And from there, a numerical list of contenders. So when he says (insert fighter), number 1 at (whatever weight), he's more or less factually accurate. At least accurate enough for anyone who watches his show to comprehend anyway.

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3 points · 1 day ago

Fuck off, it makes no sense at all. Yeah, the rankings are exactly why he does it; his brain (for the art) is confused by the fact that there's a "1" next to Ortegas name. The word "contender" is absolutely the key here, and he never uses it.

That is good line value but they were -101 (1.99) on my book. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking either side here. Afreeca have been legit good. No flukes or anything really. They're an excellent team. Especially at that value I wouldn't blame you for going Afreeca if you believe they're 50/50 or better.

I know it's a meme but why did I take KT? That's exactly why I took KT. This team always over performs against good teams and under performs against bad teams. They're the Pittsburgh Steelers of League of Legends. Ride the KT rollercoaster my friend.

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1 point · 4 days ago

Just curious, but how can you say that Afreeca +120 is "good value", yet play KT @-127?

So no it's not directly based on confidence entirely. Sometimes you need To go heavier when a gift Horse looks you in the mouth with a juicy line but this one I just feel confident about. Kinda surprised HLE isn't favored based on their recent performance and how books skew a lot toward that.

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2 points · 4 days ago

Why dont you just use Kelly?

Am I the only one who doesn't understand why this decision was controversial? Like, at all?

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-4 points · 4 days ago

Not at all, there are a bunch of people who can't score fights. Judges should be able to, thought.

6 points · 6 days ago

Tell him you have the cure to psoriasis.

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7 points · 6 days ago

And it's about seven inches below ya belly button

Then just peeeeeel, slowly peeel your baby bird out and say "this is for you...."

10 points · 6 days ago

"Yeah, me and Ronda are cool" - Bådnar

"Ronda fucked Dana to get a womens division into UFC" - Also Bryden

23 points · 6 days ago

OH WE TAHM BAH TAHM BAH TAHM BAH?!

Hashtag Icoulddoyourjobbutyoucantdomine even thought every time I hang out with papa Joe I agree that you're the best promoter on the planet

Imagine her trying to start a "deep" convo with Bogdon.

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17 points · 6 days ago

Brollan read this snap and understood half of the words

I honestly believe DJ would win that fight.

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1 point · 7 days ago

Well no shit...

4 points · 8 days ago

It's going to be a Schwab-English-Schwab dictionary

11 points · 8 days ago

It's going to be a Schwab-English-Schwab dictionary

44 points · 8 days ago

By Dana's logic... Dana is 0-0 as an MMA fighter. So he can teach us nothing.

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28 points · 8 days ago

Yeah, I dont like like Schaub at all, but mocking his fighting ability is not the way to go. When in his prime, he would have beaten everyone but maybe 15 people, on the planet...

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841 points · 9 days ago

That's exactly why flopping around and screaming is the game theory optimal play. Hazard didn't exaggerate, and got punished for it...

526 points · 9 days ago

Meanwhile you’ve got Mbappe out there looking like Neymar’s protege. He’s going to be a great but he’s already making a case for being a shitty sport.

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4 points · 9 days ago

Dont hate the player, hate the game. There are always going to be people who will do everything in their power to win. Only way football gets rid of this shit is by having zero tolerance policy.

8 points · 9 days ago

That's exactly why flopping around and screaming is the game theory optimal play. Hazard didn't play it up and got punished.

28 points · 9 days ago

Remember when he bought 15$ backpacks off eBay, slapped a FATK sticker on them, and sold them for 79.99$?

1 point · 9 days ago

OT but holy shit at those Paypal fees. Guess they're milking the money cow before they eventually go out of business because of cryptocurrencies.

Eugene Sandow didn't do half the cardio a mma fighter does. Nor did he have to train techniques

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19 points · 10 days ago

...and didn't probably know shit (compared to 2018) about nutrition or effectiveness of different training techniques. Works both ways.

But how spread out were those tests? If he was tested 11 times in a single month then not for the rest of the year then I don't think that really matters.

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-1 points · 10 days ago

Why would they test him 11 times in a month, and skip rest of the year? You're trying to make shit up to fit your narrative.

You'd think that's the first english word a Borrachinha looking motherfucker would learn.

Ya'll musta forgot. Nice to see Showtime back atleast for one fight.

Something was off about his pecs I thought

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16 points · 11 days ago · edited 11 days ago

They look a bit weird because he has a big gap between them. This time even weirder as he seemingly had lost some muscle.

0 points · 12 days ago

They made one of the greatest moments in the UFC history feel "meh" because of this bullshit...

We got completely obliterated for -23.2 units yesterday 9 of which was a live bet that turned pretty badly on us but we have what looks like an easy one tomorrow morning.

In the blog post I discuss and break down what went wrong yesterday and what was just unlucky as well as analyze the LCK vs LMS Blind Relay match tomorrow.

No time to post stats from phone but I'm going with the following selections for tomorrow:

LCK @ LMS - 7 units (max bet) - Handicapped: LCK -2.5 @ -120

LCK @ LMS - 5 units - PROP: Exact LCK 3-0 @ -161 (this was the initial offering, once I saw actual handicapped line was 41 points better we went heavy on that)

LCK @ LMS - 1 unit - PROP: Exact LCK 3-1 @ +223

I know Flash Wolves have looked good but the truth is Korea have punted badly in every game against them. For whatever reason they tilt once in awhile against them. Flash Wolves are something like 9-9 all time vs Korea at international competitions. People call them the "Korea Slayers" but I would handicapped a SKT -120/FW +100 or something along those lines and that's our WORST case scenario here.

See blog post for further breakdown and BOL all!

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I just commented a second ago and am a dumbass because I misunderstood the Rift Rivals format...

That -120 is actually insane value. Bovada has it at -145 which I am going to nope out of though.

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2 points · 12 days ago

-120 implies 54.5% win probability, -145 implies 59% win probability. How is the former insane value, if you "nope out of" -145?

3 points · 12 days ago

LCK 3-0 @-161 seems like such a weird/awful bet. I mean, you could get ANY of the Korean teams ALONE at better than -161 versus Flash Wolves. None of the three teams would have been a bigger favourite against FW (SKT closed at around +150). You're basically hoping for the best possible match up (KT who would have been the slight favourites), and then, to add to that, you're negative freerolling the two other LMS teams.

11 points · 13 days ago

Didn't have time to update parts of the record, but the spreadsheet of my straight picks should be updated.

For the detailed results from 2018, click here!

Like this card a lot. See you tomorrow for the other one, and good luck.






🎆🎆🎆 THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 27 FINALE: TAVARES VS ADESANYA 🎆🎆🎆

Brad Tavares (55%) to defeat Israel Adesanya
Tavares and Adesanya goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (80%) 🍍🍍🍍

Mike Trizano (55%) to defeat Joe Giannetti
Trizano and Giannetti goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

BRAD KATONA (65%) to defeat Jay Cucciniello 🥝🥝🥝
Katona and Cucciniello goes under 2.5 rounds (55%)

Martin Bravo (60%) to defeat Alex Caceres
Bravo and Caceres goes over 2.5 rounds (60%)

BARB HONCHAK (70%) to defeat Roxanne Modafferi 🍇🍇🍇
Honchak and Modafferi goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (85%) 🍍🍍🍍

Julian Marquez (60%) to defeat Alessio Di Chirico

Fight is going to be a mess. Both guys will gas at some point in the second, Marquez has the skills to fight past that and remain effective on offensive.

Marquez and Di Chirico goes OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (75%) 🍇🍇🍇

MONTANA DE LA ROSA (65%) to defeat Rachael Ostovich 🥝🥝🥝

Two girls who are both making steady improvements. I like Rachael's striking here, but don't see there being able to pull that far ahead with it. Her only relevant wins are against girls that are weak on the ground and made huge mistakes.

When Montana loses, she gets killed. But she's the kills come from girls with elite ground games like Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo, or excellent takedown defense like Nicco Montano. Rachael is capable in both aspects, but her grappling and wrestling are prone to sloppiness; Montana looks more skilled, has better control, more of an idea of what direction to move in next. Each takedown could win her a round.

De La Rosa and Ostovich goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (70%) 🍇🍇🍇

LUIS PENA (85%) to defeat Richie Smullen 🍍🍍🍍

Both these guys are only a few fights into their careers, but Smullen's wins are of scary low quality. His most recent fight was a majority draw, but his three wins were against guys that entered in at a combined 1-0, currently at combined 2-5. Doesn't look good at all.

Pena is way better offensively, and I don't see how Smullen's wrestling slows it down enough for him win here.

Pena and Smullen goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)

JOHN GUNTHER (65%) to defeat Allen Zuniga 🍍🍍🍍
Gunther and Zuniga goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

TYLER DIAMOND (80%) to defeat Bryce Mitchell 🍍🍍🍍

Tyler outwrestles, overwhelms Mitchell.

Diamond and Mitchell goes over 2.5 rounds (55%)

MATT BESSETTE (80%) to defeat Steven Peterson 🍍🍍🍍

Peterson's wrestling game isn't effective enough for this level, especially given that he's apparently committed moving up in weight. Peterson can be dangerous with a guillotine, but Bessette needs to make a big mistake to find himself there.

Peterson looks uncomfortable standing with all of the better opponents he's faced, and he gets sliced up standing here. Bessette can be rocked, but has some power of his own and he's the guy that's used to fighting featherweights. Peterson needs this to become a prolonged brawl and Bessette has shown enough restraint in his career that I trust him to not to indulge.

Bessette and Peterson goes OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (65%). 🥝🥝🥝

OSKAR PIECHOTA (95%) to defeat Gerald Meerschaert 🍉🍉🍉

Cardio concerns for Piechota, but nothing that gets him taken advantage of. He's shown nice striking with really good power, good precision, only going to keep improving.

He also has the kind of world-class jiu-jitsu that devours Meerschaert's greatest strength. Piechota should be able to get a takedown if he wants one, and he can effortlessly maneuver into workable positions. On the feet, Meerschaert isn't going to get demolished like he did against Thiago Santos, but there will be moments when he gets knocked around.

I feel a sudden finish are Meerschaert's only avenues here. He can hurt you, but the body kick on Eric Spicely was the only time I've seen him shut someone right off. He cut an armbar through a defenseive lapse from black belt Ryan Janes, but how does Piechota make that kind of mistake?

Piechota and Meerschaert goes under 1.5 rounds (60%)
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7 points · 12 days ago · edited 12 days ago

I continue to be confused by your posts. I assume they have nothing to do with betting as you, for example, list "picks" that you are 60% confident about, while the odds imply a 80% win probability.

If you're just trying to pick a winner (and you're picking and choosing, not listing every fight) your W/L record is absolutely abysmal. Your "detailed spreadsheet" is a list of W/L...

9 points · 13 days ago

I dislike how gianetti was so calm. It seemed like he didn’t care or even want to be in there.

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4 points · 13 days ago

He only got his submission skills from his mother, Rose Namajunas. Fight iq is from the father, who's obviously Jorge Masvidal.

6 points · 13 days ago

Giannetti looks like what would happen if Rose Namajunas fucked Jorge Masvidal

u/ontemu
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