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Been giving the George Soros event a bit of thought and a hypothesis is beginning to form..

Some 30,000 ft ideology of Soros’s investment philosophy:

He runs for the most part a macro hedge fund, making macro bets on assets & currencies.

He enters relatively early in the market cycle of the event he expects to unfold.

Typically these opportunities are against major market sentiments i.e when the market is focused on A, he uncovers B which is overlooked.

He at times combines multiple assets/ currencies in a trade. Eg: Shorting Japanese yen while going long Japanese equities (circa 2012).

Most importantly, he enters only when there is an expectation of a major market movement (no short term trades). That is the asset/ currency will either collapse or take off.

Now with respect to Crypto, his ideology would give the following clues:

If he’s entering now (and not at the peak) with a short, what is unlikely is that we will go down to an expected level (say 5k). Reason? Most of the crash would be over and done with, doesn’t tie into his strategy. What is more likely is that he would expect prices to collapse from here (not what we want to hear…but sub 1k for sure).

He could, conversely be looking at this as a macro play..most of the global markets don’t take crypto seriously and are dismissive (hence a contra play), and would be caught by surprise if we do see a 200k BTC price= big pay day for him.

Further, he may build a trade using BTC if for example, he’s bearish on global markets or expects a devastating global trade war, he could short equities while longing BTC.

One could delve deeper to uncover further possible trades in line with his investment philosophy..above is just a thought experiment as of now.

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I would say Soros is bullish on crypto especially after pumping $100 million into Overstock.

Reminds me when I was buying at $700 and dollar cost averaging my way down to $250 per coin. I was really a sad sad bag holder but in retrospect, they were they best trades of my life.

GBTC premium has been obliterated.

what does this mean ?

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GBTC was trading as high as 3500 when BTC was at 19000 and is now down to 1600 when bitcoin is at 12000.

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I think we are barely in media attention phase.

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7 mentions of bitcoin on the front page of cnbc. That seems excessive to me.

I'm new to TA, but looks like we're dancing on the support line, right ? http://prntscr.com/gnydb7

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That's the same line I've got my eye on... waiting... watching...

Comment deleted10 months ago

I'm actually not angry.

Comment deleted10 months ago

do you even know?

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10 points · 10 months ago · edited 10 months ago

x-post - just wanted to make you all aware that Electron Cash is capable of stealing your coins. https://reticulogic.blogspot.com/2017/08/electrum-cash-scam-alert-you-will-lose.html

NOT AN ISSUE

There is no issue with Electron Cash. It was the automatic wallet copy that made it looks like funds were being transferred. Please disregard the above. Thanks for helping me figure this out.

The address you claim the funds were sent to has no transactions.

http://blockdozer.com/insight/address/147Mv5V9DEtwQb6cYBzJmAdGscPh3mTy4K

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Thanks for pointing that out! The transaction was sitting in my Electron Cash Wallet with the status 'low fee' and the destination to the address above. It appears that the transaction was eventually rejected by the network and the amount was returned to my address. I was able to move that amount to another of my addresses. So alls well that ends well? hmmm, something was definitely going on with that 147Mv.. address.

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Maybe I won't sell my BCC quite yet. That's a lot of unconfirmed activity with BTC! And I just moved some BTC with a $2 transaction fee!

https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?

ooh, you all are harsh. Just providing a data point.

I have a feeling alts will get some of this action if Bittrex is opening up deposits, people will sell and put a portion into the alts on Bittrex, it's going to be entertaining soon!

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Mind reader! That's exactly what I've been waiting to do.

5 points · 10 months ago · edited 10 months ago

You don't need to do anything.

Only exception is if you have your bitcoins on an exchange, then it's a good idea to move them to your own wallet so you can be certain that you get your BCCs. Then again, it's probably barely worth the effort.

Edit: that said, if you have your bitcoins in a wallet that doesn't let you export your private keys, you might want to change that. Otherwise you'll be dependent on that wallet dev to support BCC. So move them to Bitcoin Core or to Electrum or any other wallet that gives you full control over your keys if you want to be 100% sure.

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I expect there will be an initial pump in BCC followed by a steep drop and then eventual crawl to worthlessness. That goes out the window if there are issues with Segwit. If Segwit has issues and BCC implements a simple 2MB bump then who knows. The ETC chart may provide some precedence when it split from Ethereum even though the driving purpose was different. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum-classic/

Why, in a mechanical sense, do triangles tend to break so violently? Why don't things just drift out lazily over a day or so?

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Personally, I was expecting a bounce off the top line and literally about to submit a sell order and then saw the breakout. Now I'm going to hold a bit longer. I'm sure I'm not the only one that pulled a potential sell from the books. Others have been waiting for a breakout to confirm they should buy and are about to pile in with buy orders. Fewer sellers and more buyers.... bam

pphhht.. should have sold.

1 point · 11 months ago · edited 11 months ago

waiting a few days for execution

Damn you're a genius! Such an elegant solution.

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Original Poster1 point · 11 months ago

Thanks for reading. You criticism is welcome to further the discussion. The lack of actual content in your response is foaming with irony. Love it.

I wasn't being sarcastic.

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Original Poster1 point · 11 months ago

omg seriously! So sorry about that. I've been slammed and reslammed for putting an opinion out there. It made me hypersensitive.

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3 points · 1 year ago

Dammit....sold everything. Damn those weak hands.... Regretting it so much right now.

Hate this feeling.

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feel better now?

15 points · 1 year ago

Zoom out people

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phew, thanks

Man... All this talk of selling if the ETF is denied.

Exactly what are these people expecting? Am I the only person with no plans either way?

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I'm hodling if no ETF and buying if ETF approved.

GBTC - Time to take profits from 108. Current price is inline with the consolidation phase last July and it is dancing at parity with BTC. A decent pullback in BTC might hit GBTC unreasonably hard.

http://imgur.com/a/N8GJF

If the ETF fizzles we should see a spike in GBTC as it reclaims it's premium. Expect jump from 108 to touch 134. If the ETF succeeds I expect a bump in BTC and a loss in premium in GBTC and will shoot for an exit at ~117.

http://imgur.com/a/YtDCW

Are there any options on GBTC one can buy?

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No, I've tried to get some before myself but none are available.

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14 points · 1 year ago

This at the last hour, for a rejection? Don't feel right to me. Consider me pouring pretty much everything I can gets my hands on into Btc in the next month.

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x Execution Solutions LLC, KCG Americas LLC, and Virtu Financial BD LLC have each signed an Authorized Participant Agreement with the Trust and, upon the effectiveness of such agreement and the registration statement, may create and redeem Ba

Might as well start pouring now. Firesale! These prices won't last.

11 points · 1 year ago · edited 1 year ago

The strongest signal I can find that an ETF approval is imminent is the fact that GBTC (the closest thing currently available to an ETF) has lost almost all of its price premium. Currently GBTC is trading at less than a 14% premium; historically pretty much as low as it's ever been (except for a couple of very brief periods in the past).

Traditionally GBTC has held a 40% price premium for most of its lifetime.

This shrinking of the premium has been happening even during a bull market, which is really odd behavior for GBTC.

Does someone know something the rest of us don't know, or are GBTC traders just changing their behavior on the expectation alone? Probably the latter.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GNmUtmDMUXUiNlb-tMkDIjESDh6fQTq2uyuJDoKfFDs/edit#gid=0

EDIT

The premium is now down to less than 12%!! That's crazy.

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Currently GBTC is trading at less tha

Agreed on the pattern based on expectation alone. I had to pick some up since the premium is low. If the ETF is approved, BTC should rise enough to offset the loss of premium. If the ETF is not approved, GBTC may spike to recapture the premium. Take that with a grain of salt b/c I expect BTC to drop a bit if the ETF is rejected.

Bought a bunch of GBTC @117 during the recent dip when I heard the ex-Gemini lawyer say the ETF was unlikely. Down 8% on that apparently bonehead move. Not sure how to feel about this, but I guess I had better hold. It's IRA money so I can't buy real BTC with it anyway. The premium can't go negative can it? If the ETF comes along and we cruise through 1200 on the good news presumably GBTC cannot continue screwing me while everyone else parties.

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GBTC has traded at parity and even below parity in the past. Granted 99% of the time it has traded at a premium though.

Playing the channel on the one hour.

http://imgur.com/a/OSdeT

C'mon, you've got support 3 ways right there.
http://imgur.com/a/jg2oV

Timing a quick exit if we pull back from the top of this channel again. http://imgur.com/a/bM8Z7

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Guess you weren't there to see the flash crash to 100 or the great bearwhale at 200

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"The great bearwhale" Those were the good old days when we felt like soldiers against a common foe. Well, at least the bulls did. :-)

"The great bearwhale" Those were the good old days when we felt like soldiers against a common foe. Well, at least the bulls did. :-)

[deleted]
-26 points · 1 year ago

I liked that they added, "The people responsible for securing our weapons." Like they were saying, "Well no one was here so we just left the door open, you know." LMFAO, Huffpo trying to convince people that we were in danger during that time.

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-14 points · 1 year ago

Huff po has list so much credibility over the last few months, why stop now.

NO UNITY! We must elect out the regressive Trump regime. The man is a bigot, a xenophobe, a racist, and a misogynist. No amount of policy changes is going to erase his comments. There was not a single apology issued for his comments, nor the actions taken against innocent people by his hostile supporters. They have literally urinated on immigrants, and cited Trump's "illegals" position as the reason why! Unacceptable.

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"There was not a single apology issued". That's a complete lie.

Please list Donald Trump's apologies from the campaign. I believe he did issue one after the devastating crush of the tapes.

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If you believe he issued one, why discredit yourself with the prior statement?

u/reticulogic
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